Spain's Civil Guard has produced a six-page report examining the possibility of another mass migrant crossing into the Spanish territory of Ceuta on 15 August.
The document, obtained by Spanish media outlet Mañaneros, is based on a campaign circulating on social media that, according to the report, has reached groups with hundreds of thousands of followers.
The analysis relies entirely on open-source information - social media posts and media reports - and was intended to determine whether the online call to make the crossing was genuine, how widely it had spread, and the degree of coordination behind it.
The report stops short of drawing firm conclusions, however. As cited by RTVE, it said there was no basis for estimating how many people might take part or for assuming that the events seen in late July would be repeated on 15 August.
Its conclusion is that an active online campaign exists with the potential to mobilise people, but whether it will actually result in a mass crossing, how many people would be involved, and who is behind it all remain unknown. The report added that much will depend on Morocco's preventive measures on roads, at transport hubs, in the town of Fnideq, and along the coast, as well as on Spain's security operation.
