Evolution has turned into revolution at Newcastle United, even if not all of it has been entirely by design.If Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali’s exits were telegraphed, then Eddie Howe’s sudden departure as head coach was not. Now, Bruno Guimaraes, the club captain and arguably Newcastle’s most important player, is on his way to Arsenal for a fixed fee of £75million ($101m; €87.5m).One of the first tasks facing Matthias Jaissle, the new head coach, is to find a new skipper as well as a new talisman.Chris Waugh and George Caulkin dissect the merits and drawbacks to the sale of Guimaraes, outline the ramifications and look at where Newcastle may turn to next in the transfer market.Was Guimaraes’ sale inevitable?Increasingly, yes. When The Athletic first broke the news of Guimaraes’ desire to join Arsenal, Newcastle’s response was bullish. He wasn’t going anywhere, leading figures at the club said. They wanted him to lead their reset. And given his status, his energy and quality and drive — and in the context of losing other senior players — his value to them was enormous. They did not need to sell.Others at the club — particularly around the dressing room — were less sure. They had seen this movie before and were still scarred by Alexander Isak’s contentious and drawn-out departure for Liverpool in the summer of 2025. There was also some empathy for Guimaraes, who would be leaving for a club that could pay much more in salary and would be challenging for major honours.But there was still some hope at that point that Guimaraes could be talked around or that Arsenal might not hit the numbers Newcastle were looking for. Was there a way they could get their talisman to commit for another season, perhaps with the carrot of a reduced release clause? This was one of the questions posed internally, according to sources familiar with the situation, speaking anonymously in order to discuss sensitive subjects.Yet events took their own course. Arsenal’s interest did not dissipate, no matter how difficult it proved for Newcastle to engage with them. Guimaraes’s stance did not soften and Howe stepping down also brought a change in tone; the two men had a close relationship and here was the perfect excuse for Guimaraes to confirm he needed to go. Just before he left, Howe admitted the situation had become a “distraction”.With a new head coach arriving, with Guimaraes adamant and Arsenal now negotiating via the front door, everybody accepted that a deal needed to be done, that a reset would effectively become a clean sweep and a fresh start. Newcastle needed “the melodrama” to end. Everything became about extracting maximum value.Bruno Guimaraes to join Arsenal for £75millionDavid Ornstein and Reuben PinderHave Newcastle got a good deal?Those inside the club are keen to present this as close to a record sale for a midfielder of Guimaraes’ age — he will be 29 in November — and, allied with the fact Arsenal’s initial bid was worth around £45m, Newcastle have extracted far more than the Premier League champions intended to pay.However, it is difficult to argue this is an especially positive deal for Newcastle. Beyond the footballing cost — the loss of their captain, talisman and chief creative force whom, under Howe, they seldom won without — and the reputational damage of selling a fourth key player inside 11 months, Newcastle have only achieved the minimum acceptable price for the Brazilian who they had not initially wanted to part with.For more than a month after news of Arsenal’s interest in Guimaraes broke, Newcastle were unequivocal in their strong rhetoric. The insistence was that Guimaraes was not for sale — which admittedly was always subtly different to “will not be sold” — and they would not welcome interest.Senior figures were adamant it would take an “irrational” offer for that stance to soften and pointed towards the £100m total package Tottenham Hotspur committed for Tonali as a reference point for the ballpark figure Newcastle would be expecting to receive for Guimaraes.Whether the public front was reflected in private, or was largely a negotiating tactic from Newcastle, is difficult to determine, though the truth probably lies somewhere in between. The position had been unequivocal, at least during conversations with those at the top of the club, and they stressed that whatever tactics were being employed during negotiations, they would not be bullied into accepting a low-ball offer, nor would Guimaraes’ own actions lead to Newcastle wavering.Bruno Guimaraes is close to leaving Newcastle United for Arsenal (Stu Forster/Getty Images)Lyon are also due around £6m-£7m from a 20 per cent sell-on clause inserted into the deal when Newcastle acquired Guimaraes in January 2022, meaning the club will not see all of the proceeds themselves, while the likely cost of any ready-made quality replacements could prove prohibitive. Even so, Newcastle feel securing the full £75m as a guaranteed fee represents strong value in the market.Was this a capitulation? No. Was this a rational, necessary decision to conclude negotiations early so they did not repeat the mistakes of last summer? Perhaps.But a good deal? That feels like a stretch, given how strong Newcastle’s stance had been, even given the lack of comparable transfers for players of a similar age.Did the Isak situation influence how they handled this?Absolutely. Avoiding the carnage of 2025 has been a guiding principle in all Newcastle’s dealings this summer, whether incoming or outgoing. Losing Isak was bad enough — a striker who had scored 20-plus goals in consecutive Premier League seasons — but the timing of his departure was incredibly damaging. Newcastle buckled at the last minute and their attempts to replace him were desperate.This summer, Newcastle have had a “plan”: selling on their terms, reducing their wage bill and buying young and hungry players who can develop on Tyneside. Howe leaving wasn’t part of that. Nor was Guimaraes, hence their attempt to force Arsenal’s hand.By initially rebuffing Liverpool a year ago, Newcastle ultimately got a bigger fee, but the cost in other respects was incalculable. Perhaps they could have done the same with Guimaraes but that would have involved retaining a disgruntled, unsettled player who had effectively checked out. At least this way, the boil has been lanced.To put that another way, senior figures at Newcastle accept that Guimaraes leaving and the price they have got for him was not their preferred outcome, but in this context, the timing and fee are a “good outcome”.How big a hole does he leave?A colossal one.Guimaraes was the heartbeat of Howe’s Newcastle side. He has been their tempo-setter, a player of quality, emotion and ceaseless endeavour who captained them to their first domestic trophy for 70 years.In the Premier League, there were only two victories in the 19 matches he failed to start since his full debut in March 2022. He was the team’s metronome, their dynamo.Guimaraes is not just about his skill set, his progressive ball-playing and his quality on the ball. He is also about attitude and leadership. He has never been a shouter but is a captain by example. All of Kieran Trippier, Guimaraes and Jamaal Lascelles, the three ‘captains’ who lifted the Carabao Cup at Wembley last year, have moved on inside seven months.In a year or two, Sean Steur, the 18-year-old who joined from Ajax last month and has drawn almost universal praise behind the scenes, may prove to be an ideal successor for Guimaraes. Some insiders have compared the two players and perhaps the idea had been for the teenager to learn from Guimaraes before the Brazilian could be permitted to leave in the future. Very much seen as a ‘project player’, heaping too much expectation on Steur would be detrimental.Externally, an (attainable) like-for-like replacement for Guimaraes probably does not exist. There is a reason Arsenal wanted Guimaraes — precisely because there are so few midfielders with his qualities. Those who do exist are likely to prove expensive and may take some convincing to join.Given Newcastle’s struggles to attract their top targets over the past two summers, they will have to be forceful in their approach, present an exciting vision to prospective players and perhaps even get a little lucky.Admittedly, for Jaissle, the loss of Guimaraes may not prove quite as seismic as it would have done for Howe. Jaissle never fielded a side with the Brazilian at its core, so he is not ‘losing’ Guimaraes in that sense. Instead, he can entirely mould the side in his image and that may prove liberating.Will the Guimaraes fee be reinvested into the squad?Yes, is the clear message.To repeat, Newcastle did not need to sell Guimaraes. As David Hopkinson, the Newcastle chief executive, has told The Athletic, the time has come for the club to “pay the credit card bill”. The sale of Gordon to Barcelona for a fee rising to €80m (£68.6m, $92.4m) was necessary to make them compliant with UEFA regulations after missing out on European football. Selling Tonali “provided us with the headroom to bring in the players we have”.There will inevitably be a bigger spend now that Guimaraes has gone because of the huge shoes he leaves to fill, yet Newcastle’s new model is also based around sustainability.The big idea is putting an end to the cycle of boom and bust when it comes to recruitment, leaving them with scope to invest in every transfer window rather than the scattergun approach that left them with an ageing, unbalanced squad.What kind of coach is Mattias Jaissle?Sebastian Stafford-Bloor and moreDo they have anyone lined up?As of last week, Newcastle were not aggressively pursuing a replacement for Guimaraes. At that point — before Howe’s exit was announced — there was still a thought he might stay. As with every player and coach, clubs have a succession plan and Newcastle had a list of potential targets, but it was difficult to move for them without knowing for definite whether Guimaraes was going.Yet certainty is not a huge ally either. Selling clubs now know that Newcastle will be coming. Finding a bargain feels very unlikely, although this is no longer the point. There is a compelling story in a young manager leading a youthful team, but with Guimaraes gone, there is a desperate need for at least some experience as well as quality.There is admiration for Victor Froholdt, the Denmark midfielder, though Porto’s asking price may be prohibitive. Newcastle have also admired Angelo Stiller’s ability to dictate the tempo of matches at Stuttgart, and France midfielder Manu Kone, from Roma, was floated earlier in the window.The latter two names more fit the profile of player it is being suggested Newcastle may pursue, with the need for “experience” actively being cited internally. Four of Newcastle’s five summer recruits have been aged 20 or under, while a vast amount of leadership has departed since the season ended.Feasibly, Newcastle may determine that one player alone will not compensate for the loss of Guimaraes. A midfielder and another creative player in a different position could be brought in, should they go down that route.Beyond a Guimaraes successor, however, at least one full-back and ideally multiple are required, while another attacker may yet be sought.