SummaryIran says Hormuz route is agreed: Tehran says it has finalized a shipping route with Oman, blaming U.S. actions for delaying a final agreement.Tehran claims victory: Iranian officials say the deal would lock in Iran's wartime gains and strategic leverage over Hormuz.Mixed messages: Trump says a deal could come within days, while Iran insists the talks are only with Oman.Draft outline emerges: Reports outline Iranian oversight of inbound traffic and Omani management of outbound shipping.High stakes as pressure eased on markets, but geopolitical tensions high: A deal could ease energy market fears while leaving Iran with more influence over Hormuz than before the war.US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Yes 80% · No 21%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *Iran-Oman Route 'Agreed To' as Iran Warns Against US 'Interference'A statement from Iran's Foreign Ministry warns that the United States and military 'interference' remain the biggest obstacles to a final Hormuz deal to reopen the strait:Esmaeil Baqaei: The geographical coordinates of the route proposed by Iran and Oman in the Strait of Hormuz have been agreed upon. If some third parties do not obstruct this process, the joint statement between the two countries is in the final review and drafting stage. The understanding between Iran and Oman, in itself, cannot guarantee the safety of the Strait for passing ships, because the factors that create insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly those stemming from the United States, such as the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist.Iranian pundits and state media continue touting this as a 'victory' over the US-Israeli war of aggression:Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, has said Iran is aiming to “stabilise” its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is its “biggest military achievement of the war”.“Negotiations are aimed at stabilizing those achievements,” Dareini told Al Jazeera. “You do not negotiate to give away your achievements but stabilise them.”Once Iran opens up the strait, Dareini said Iran is still likely to put in place a mechanism to “ensure that peace will prevail”.“Iran wants to make sure that there will be innocent passage … But there will not be hazardous passage, there will not be war,” he said, arguing that Tehran needs to ensure the US and its allies do not transport military equipment that could be used for attacks against it.This also as Yemen's Houthis continue a 'siege for siege' blockade of Red Sea passage, targeting Saudi-linked vessels of Yemen's coast, as we described.Thus far on Wednesday, the White House has remained mostly quiet on what seem to be Iran and Omani-driven talks for terms of the Hormuz Strait's reopening. Tehran, however, has not remained quiet - as US bombs have fallen silent over the past couple days:IRAN SAYS NEW HORMUZ ROUTE TO BE VALID FOR 2-4 MONTHS: IRNAIRAN: NEW OMAN DEAL TO CLOSE TEMPORARY HORMUZ SHIPPING ROUTESGHARIBABADI SAYS IRAN RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM US: IRNAIRAN: US SAID IN MESSAGES IT'S READY TO RETURN TO ITS PLEDGESAnd via Israeli media, though without official confirmation from Washington:Approaching an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz, N12 reports, citing American officials; The signing of the agreement is possible as early as tonight.Meanwhile, much of all of the above depends on what 'mood' Trump is in:US military-intelligence leaks to media are designed to dissuade Trump from escalating his war (we’re out of missiles & interceptors, Iran isn’t; Iran won’t break, etc). Whereas Israeli intel leaks to media are designed to rile Trump into escalating the war by calling him a pussy https://t.co/Uu3wfmZX8r
