El-Sayed's Michigan win could cost Democrats in the midterms | Opinion

Forget the November midterms, progressives are already cheering Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Democratic Senate primary win as a 2028 blueprint. But Michigan is a swing state that's gone for Trump twice.Show Caption

Abdul El-Sayed's got serious momentum, and in politics, momentum is everything.El-Sayed, a 41-year-old progressive and former public health official, beat moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's closely watched Senate primary.The question everyone in my state is asking: What does this mean for Democrats in November? It's an open seat with Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, not seeking reelection. Democrats need to hold it if they want any shot at retaking the chamber. Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate seat in three decades.El-Sayed will face former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a 2024 Senate bid to Elissa Slotkin. Rogers is a strong candidate, but this time he won't have President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket to carry him.And Rogers, who faced no primary opponent, won't carry the same excitement into the general election that El-Sayed does.Progressives are winning primaries. The midterms will be the true test. Winning the primary was the easy part. El-Sayed, like every far-left Democrat who's won a primary this election cycle, now has to sell his progressive message to voters statewide.Michigan is a swing state that's gone for Trump twice, so the prevailing logic is that El-Sayed faces a tougher general election audience, and that this could help Rogers. This is why establishment Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer backed Stevens.The polls agree. Before the primary, Rogers held a slim average lead over El-Sayed (0.3 percentage points) but trailed Stevens by nearly 2 points.Progressive Democrats will watch Michigan closely in November as a road map for what's possible in 2028."If he wins the general election, it sends a signal to scared, well-meaning electability voters that someone who actually inspires them can win a swing state," Adam Green, cofounder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, told NPR.El-Sayed tries to distance himself from socialists while welcoming their support El-Sayed has energized leftist voters with a simple message: Get money out of politics and into the pockets of everyday Americans. He's also a proponent of Medicare for all.The candidate, who campaigns in tight T-shirts showing off his biceps, is especially popular with young voters. An Emerson College poll before the primary showed voters under 50 backed El-Sayed over Stevens by a stunning 42 points. He's also hit hard on affordability, an issue Trump promised to fix but hasn't delivered on fast enough for voters."It shouldn't be this hard to afford a second bag of groceries. It shouldn't be this hard to pay your rent. It shouldn't be this hard to afford a home. It shouldn't be this hard to see a doctor in the richest, most powerful country in the world," El-Sayed said.He's walking a fine line, appealing to progressives while distancing himself from the Democratic Socialists of America, of which he's not a member. He's even said he believes in capitalism.Who your friends are says a lot about you, and El-Sayed's friends are about as radical as they come. He has the enthusiastic backing of avowed democratic socialists Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York.Self-described Marxist Hasan Piker, a Twitch streamer with a history of ugly and inflammatory views, campaigned with El-Sayed several times, including the day before the primary. El-Sayed has also previously advocated for defunding the police and currently supports abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Those positions may play well in a Democratic primary.In a general election, they're exactly the kind of thing Rogers needs to make Michigan reconsider how much it likes this "momentum."El-Sayed may try to downplay these stances and his socialist supporters between now and November. Rogers won't let him.“Rogers can show how El-Sayed embraces positions more aligned with the New York and California Democrats than the more grounded and commonsense policies generally associated with moderate, Midwestern Democrats,” Dennis Darnoi, a Michigan Republican political adviser, told me. Rogers will have to make a compelling case for why Michigan should trust him over a candidate with this much energy behind him. But El-Sayed has a case to answer, too: He can win a Democratic primary with Sanders, AOC and Piker at his side. Whether he can win Michigan with them is the question he and Democrats have three months to answer.Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on X: @Ingrid_Jacques