It’s been a particularly apocalyptic summer. Relentless, record-shattering heatwaves, untamable wildfires, and deadly floods are just some of the disasters that have made global headlines in the past few months. In a warming world, these extreme events are beginning to feel commonplace. But according to a staggering analysis, it’s probably going to get much worse very soon. Research published earlier this year in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows—with 98% statistical certainty—that global warming has accelerated significantly in the last decade. Since 2015, Earth’s temperature has risen at an estimated pace of 0.63 degrees Fahrenheit (0.35 degrees Celsius) per decade, as opposed to just under 0.36 degrees F (0.2 degrees C) per decade from 1970 to 2015. This is the first time researchers have stated with statistical confidence that global warming is accelerating. While the study did not investigate the specific causes of the acceleration, climate models show that an increasing rate of warming is possible, according to the authors. The findings speak to how insufficient efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have been.
“If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5-degree C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030,” lead author Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in a statement. “How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero.”
