Musk Taunts SpaceX Bears Ahead Of Earnings: "I Tried To Warn Them, But They Just Double Down"

Summary: Musk Warns Bears (Again) Earnings at 1600 ET; Earnings Call at 1630 ET SPCX Short Position Soars SpaceX Earnings Preview: The Five Questions That Matter Most Musk Comments On ZH X Post Elon Musk has delivered another reminder to bears piling into SPCX shorts that "doubling down" can be a very costly strategy.The stock is being squeezed nearly 10% higher in the afternoon trading hours in New York, with SpaceX set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company in just a few hours."I try to warn them, but they just double down...," Musk wrote in an X post responding to our earlier report citing proprietary data from S3 Partners.That data shows 95% of SpaceX shares available to borrow are already out on loan, with short interest amounting to 34% of the float.I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026Ahead of SpaceX earnings set to be released at 1600 ET (earnings call at 1630 ET), UBS analyst Christina Dwyer provided clients with color on what to look for ahead of earnings:SpaceX (SPCX) reports after the closing bell on Tuesday and heads into its first major earnings report as a public company with investor focus increasingly shifting beyond the quarter itself. While revenue and EBITDA performance will matter, the August 6 lockup expiration appears likely to be the bigger near-term driver, opening the door to the first meaningful wave of insider selling just days after results. On the call, management is expected to spend considerable time on AI-related initiatives. Investors will be looking for updates on data center buildouts, potential increases to compute targets and any incremental commentary around Grok deployment timelines. Stronger-than-expected AI revenue could represent one of the more credible upside catalysts. Beyond AI, attention will also center on Starlink and Starship. An updated Starlink subscriber figure could be disclosed, although the market may be hesitant to place significant weight on the metric while the network remains largely supported by V2 Mini satellites. For Starship, investors are likely to focus on execution milestones, launch cadence and any signals around the path toward operational payload launches. Positioning remains an important factor. Hedge funds still screen as notably short, which could amplify upside if AI revenue exceeds expectations or if Starlink economics surprise positively, particularly around ARPU. Even so, the desk believes the lockup expiration is likely to dominate the T+1 reaction and remain the primary stock-specific overhang in the near term.Polymarket odds of SpaceX beating on quarterly earnings currently stand around 35%.SPCX Short Hits 34% Of Float Ahead Of Earnings SpaceX's first earnings report since its record-setting early June IPO is just hours away and will test whether investors can justify the company's lofty valuation after a vicious post-IPO bear market.Shares hit a low of $104.83 on Monday, 22.4% below the $135 offering price and 53.5% beneath their June peak of $225, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value. However, the stock rebounded to $119 on Tuesday morning.Wall Street expects a second-quarter loss of 24 cents per share on $6.8 billion in revenue, though limited financial disclosures have left analysts with little confidence in these estimates.RBC analyst Ken Herbert outlined the five most important questions investors want answered before the earnings report, which will be released after the bell around 16:00 ET - 16:30 ET will be the earnings call (see report below).Earlier this morning, we cited S3 Partners' proprietary short data, which shows that 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as a percentage of the float.Massive SPCX shorting ahead of earnings: 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float: S3 pic.twitter.com/rELoXcyOJu