The Los Angeles Dodgers did it again. The World Series favorites made themselves even better. That isn’t the end of the story, though.They made a lot of noise by acquiring Tarik Skubal and shaved their World Series odds from +175 to +150, but a whole lot of signal got lost in that cacophony. The MLB picture shifted after Monday’s trade deadline, but the anti-Dodgers mob shouldn’t be abandoning ship just yet. Like Odysseus, you must strap yourself to the mast and stare into the current picture of the MLB postseason, whether you want to see it or not.Biggest moversBoston managed to bump their odds from +1500 to +1400 with the acquisition of Adley Rutschman, but the consensus among MLB analysts is adding him and lefty reliever Erik Miller didn’t exactly reset the AL East. While the Red Sox are red hot (currently on a 31-8 stretch) and up to fifth in the odds to win the World Series, they’re still 5.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and two games behind the rival New York Yankees in the division. The Rays remain favored (-125) to win the AL East.
There was similar notable (if not massive) movement for a couple NL Central hopefuls who made deadline deals, with the Milwaukee Brewers moving from +1000 to +900 and the Chicago Cubs from +1600 to +1500. Neither team could add enough firepower to contend with the Dodgers on paper, but the Brewers are nearly a postseason lock (-2000) and running away with the Central while the Cubs are comfortably in wild-card position with -1200 odds to make the postseason.If you have either on your postseason bet slip, the deadline served you well.Realistically, Los Angeles takes pole position here, if for no other reason than a team at +175 shouldn’t be able to move to +150 this late in the game without a monumental move. Adding Skubal to the best rotation in baseball – and backing him with an offense that has produced the game’s best run differential – is as close to a cheat code as you can get, but you can’t fault the Dodgers for going ‘til they can’t go no more.But in the shadow of their imperialistic expansion, the Cleveland Guardians took a massive jump from +4000 to +3500 while the San Diego Padres hopped from +8000 to +7500 thanks to their moves. San Diego snagged Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, two pitchers who transform its rotation into something resembling a proper outfit as opposed to a volunteer-based system. Cleveland added an arm (Foster Griffin) and lineup pop (Nathaniel Lowe).Both teams were long odds to win the Series, but shoring up their weak spots seems to have convinced oddsmakers that they’re more threatening than before. The Guardians in particular should draw interest because they’re locked in a division race with an unproven Chicago White Sox team and another threat in the division (Detroit) just dealt their best pitcher (Skubal) to a team in a different league.Who won and lost the MLB trade deadline?Andy McCullough and Johnny SweetThe non-moversIf you’re chasing the Dodgers, you need to make some noise. The Atlanta Braves lead the NL East, 7.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. In the AL, the Rays have 3.5 games on the Yankees. All four are considered legitimate challengers to L.A., but while none of these teams were idle, they didn’t do enough.The Rays got Freddy Peralta, currently sporting career-worst numbers, who joins an already fragile rotation. The Phillies added Luis Arráez and lefty reliever Brooks Raley, which solves a lineup logjam but doesn’t address the massive bullpen problem.Atlanta added Tyler Mahle, who is not, in fact, Tarik Skubal. The Yanks’ acquisitions of Heliot Ramos and Luis García Jr. didn’t change the fact oddsmakers don’t think they have a rotation to contend in the postseason.All four teams, despite being contenders, managed to keep their odds exactly where they were before the deadline passed.Let’s have some funHow about those White Sox though? A three-game lead in the American League Central, haven’t lost more than three games in a row all year, and they’re 100 miles ahead of schedule in their rebuild.General manager Chris Getz spent the deadline rearranging deck chairs on a ship that, against all odds, is not sinking – and the betting market hasn’t quite caught up to the vibes. Bettors can still get the Sox at 30-to-1 to win the World Series. They aren’t a top-tier contender, but a team riding this kind of wave isn’t the worst bet if you’re hoping to get one strange, electric week where the math stops mattering in the postseason.
