Part 1 of this series set out a phased domestic crude allocation policy: 350,000 to 450,000 barrels per day to domestic refining at a discount, at a net fiscal cost of $7 to $9 billion annually, financeable through existing fiscal space and the foreign exchange the policy itself saves. That is the easy half. The harder half is discipline — ensuring every naira of fiscal space this policy creates is redirected into reforms that determine whether cheaper fuel becomes investment, rather than simply cheaper petrol.
A lower diesel price that reduces the cost of doing business in an economy still constrained by insecurity, a weak judiciary, and an underprepared workforce will produce only a fraction of the investment response the policy is designed to generate. Three priorities should absorb the savings.
Security: the precondition, not an add-on
No reduction in operating cost compensates an investor for the risk of kidnapping, banditry, or asset destruction. A ring-fenced allocation toward security sector reform should prioritise state and community policing in agricultural and industrial corridors — particularly the Middle Belt and North West, where insecurity has deterred more investment than any tax policy; modernised surveillance and rapid-response infrastructure that lets forces act on intelligence before incidents escalate; and a sustained demobilisation and reintegration programme addressing banditry’s economic roots, since policing alone has not resolved a crisis with significant economic drivers.
