US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal (Brent -4.7%).Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review.Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US (USD/JPY -0.3%).US equity futures gain given the slump in energy prices; BMY (+7% pre-market) benefits on an FT report of a potential AZN merger.DXY unchanged, JPY outperforms while EUR little changed following downside revisions to manufacturing PMIs.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), and US Treasury Financing Estimates. Earnings from Palantir and ONSemi.Newsquawk in 3 steps:1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 daysEUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses start the week broadly higher across the board, helped by the announcement by US President Trump over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have dropped as a result, with the broader Energy sector lower by 1.4%. Elsewhere, EZ and UK Manufacturing PMIs were ticked lower. Within the broader EZ release, S&P stated that new work inflows remain worryingly weak and that the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline figure (51.9) suggests.Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos is the clear outperformer, followed by Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services. Outside of Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector laggards.On a quiet day of European earnings, there have been a lot of M&A stories. Starting with the biggest story of the day, the FT reported that AstraZeneca have been in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a potential merger, which would be the biggest pharma deal of all time. Shares of Astra have slumped by over 7% at one point, with BMY shares up over 7% pre-market. However, the merger will come under tough antitrust scrutiny, according to analysts at BMO, due to the significant business overlap between the Co.'s cancer drug portfolios.In other M&A moves: Prysmian (-1.8%), acquires Atkore (+26% pre-market) for USD 3.8bln; BMPS (+0.2%), considering the acquisition of Banco BPM according to the FT; Ageas (+2.4%), sells its minority stake in Eqita for c. USD 1.2bln; Holcim (-1.7%), sells its Philippines business for at least USD 807mln.US equity futures are higher, given the broader risk-on tone. Outside of the AZN-BMY story, market-moving US equity stories have been light. ZDnet reported that NVIDIA (NVDA) GeForce RTX 50 series graphics card prices in South Korea are rising by up to 30% from August, driven by higher GDDR7 memory costs and TSMC (TSM) advanced process wafer price increases.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXG10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (-0.1%) and JPY (+0.3%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct'26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.No real move seen in the EUR to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting "factories continue to reduce headcounts.... the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest." EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be supported at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.Several factors continue to buoy the JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted "they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention" and "will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy", implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since May where the low was 155.03. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150, while ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.FIXED INCOMEThe marked pullback in energy has weighed on yields, with fixed benchmarks firmer (ex-JGBs) across the board. No substantial move to Final PMIs or the morning’s other data points. Instead, we await details from the new round of US-Iran negotiations from this afternoon, and look back on themes from last week and the weekend; namely, JPY intervention & Fed reports/commentary.Bunds as high as 124.80, firmer by 40 ticks, but shy of the 124.94 peak from Friday and then a handful of levels from early last week between 125.04-25. Fleeting upside on a particularly poor German retail sales series this morning. Thereafter, Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was unrevised, and showed an “impressive start” to Q3. However, caveats apply to this and were neatly surmised in the downwardly-revised EZ series, with new work inflows weak and as such headcounts continue to be reduced.Gilts, as is usually the case amid energy-driven moves, outperform. Firmer by over 60 ticks, but also shy of levels from early last week, with a double-top at 87.24 the first point vs today’s 87.12 high. Thereafter, 87.32 and 87.51 come into view. For the UK, specifics light, focus on energy as alluded to, no move to the Final Manufacturing PMI which saw a downward revision and somewhat mixed commentary. While the broader focus remains the global policy backdrop, after Bailey pushed back on edging toward a hike (keeping the extended hold narrative in play) vs commentary from and reporting around the Fed.USTs at a 108-16 peak, yet to test the 108-20+ to 108-30 highs from last week. Ahead, the space looks to its own Final Manufacturing PMI before the ISM print and then an AtlantaFed update, in addition to Treasury financing estimates. Looking back, the late-Friday & weekend focus was on geopolitics which has driven the bulk of action (see Commodities), alongside commentary from and reporting around the Fed. Musalem said the UST sell off sent a signal that credibility must be earned via communication and action. Additionally, the NYT reported that Chair Warsh is considering, and raised at the last meeting, reducing the number of policy meetings from the current eight. The latter points are potentially keeping US yields somewhat bid, and perhaps explain why USTs are yet to test the highs from last week, in contrast to peers.Finally, JGBs are under pressure. The benchmark opened higher and climbed to a 126.96 peak early on, before reversing and falling to 126.74 and since a 126.63 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks at most. A reversal that came as the US and Japan formally confirmed the joint JPY action last week, and kept open the possibility of further intervention. Amidst this, and driving JGBs lower, FX Chief Mimura added that there is a “shared understanding with the BoJ” on the topic. Following this, Japanese short-end yields have climbed and the odds of a hike in September have increased to c. 50%, while October is over 90% implied for a hike.COMMODITIESOver the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties.WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep'26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct'26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl.Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close.3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.BoK reportedly plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years due to geopolitical risks, Korea Economic Daily reported.NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAPUK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5).EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.4).German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 50.3).French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 51.2).Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3 vs Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.2).Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.7).German Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%).German Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%).Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) Y/Y 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0%).GEOPOLITICSMIDDLE EASTUS President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNNIran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran's readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.RUSSIA-UKRAINERussia struck three ships carrying military goods in the Black Sea.Russian Transport Ministry said it is taking measures to ensure the safety of navigation and to protect ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin due to drone attacks, RIA reported.CRYPTOBitcoin slumps despite the positive risk sentiment, slipping back below the USD 63k handle to a trough of USD 62.21k.APAC TRADEAPAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump's cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen.ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives.Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week's hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday.KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today's best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINESUS Treasury Secretary Bessent posted "Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, adding intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen.Japan top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, adding joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of US-Japan currency alliance, and will continue to work closely with the BoJ.US President Trump, when asked regarding US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we're always there for Japan, adding the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.BoJ data suggested Japan conducted around JPY 5.3tln of currency intervention on Friday; July's money market conditions account shows a shortfall of around 11.4tln.PBoC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy throughout H2 2026, with a focus on interest rate supervision, according to CCTV.NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAPChinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7).Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 54.8).Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 51.5).Loading...