Back in May last year when House representatives French Hill and Glenn Thompson introduced the Clarity Act, supporters heralded the legislation as a long-awaited framework to clarify regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
More than a year later, the bill's prospects have dimmed.
After Galaxy Research cut its estimated odds of passage in 2026 to 30% last month, analysts at Bernstein said Monday the Senate now has just the coming week before recess to pass what they described as "the most consequential crypto market structure bill in U.S. history." In a note to clients, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said that while failure of the bill to pass would trigger a negative knee-jerk reaction across digital asset markets, policy support from the SEC and CFTC would accelerate under Project Crypto rather than stall. “Project Crypto could continue to provide strong interpretative releases - Clear taxonomy on tokens, clear rules around DeFi and self-custody.
Agencies could also accelerate the ‘innovation exemption’ for issuing tokens which would be exempted from being ‘securities' during a finite period,” the analysts wrote.
