Today’s Focus
A far softer-than-expected inflation print in Brazil is reshaping positioning as traders return to their desks this Monday. The IPCA-15 — a mid-month preview of the official inflation index — rose just 0.06% in the period to mid-July, well below every estimate in a Reuters poll and sharply down from 0.41% a month earlier, sending the 12-month rate down to 4.52% from 4.80%.
That number lands right as Copom, the Brazilian central bank’s rate-setting committee, gathers for a two-day meeting starting Tuesday. With the Selic at 14.25% after three consecutive quarter-point cuts, the tamer price data strengthens the case for another reduction, even as the bank’s own projections flag a possible re-acceleration later in the year tied to higher global oil prices.
Across the region the mood is watchful but not panicked. Colombia’s peso was the fireworks act late last week, soaring 2.46% against the dollar, while the Mexican peso and Brazilian real barely budged. The IPC in Mexico slipped 0.58%, lagging a broadly positive session on Wall Street, but the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain and the Nasdaq’s 1% jump are giving futures across Santiago, Bogotá and São Paulo a gentle lift this morning.
Today’s data calendar is thick. Chile publishes IMACEC economic activity figures, where the consensus sees a swing back to growth after a prior month’s contraction. Manufacturing PMI readings from Mexico, Colombia and Brazil will provide the first real check on factory-floor health for August. In the background, the US ISM manufacturing report — with new orders and prices paid at the heart of the current tariff and input-cost debate — will set the tone for the dollar and Treasury yields into the afternoon.
