Shares of ITC Ltd opened higher on Monday and were trading around ₹288.65 on the NSE, up 2.72 per cent from Friday’s close of ₹281. The stock touched an intraday high of ₹292.55, with over 3 crore shares changing hands by mid-morning, though sell-side pressure remained elevated with nearly 61 per cent of order flow on the sell side.The stock has shed over 30 per cent in the past year and trades well below its 52-week high of ₹427, hit in September 2025. Year-to-date, ITC has fallen about 20 per cent, underperforming the Nifty 50 by roughly 14 percentage points.The morning’s buying interest follows a wave of analyst notes over the weekend. Nomura and Jefferies both upgraded ITC to Buy, with target prices of ₹340 and ₹350 respectively, citing better-than-feared cigarette volume trends. Cigarette volumes fell roughly 5 per cent year-on-year in Q1, against analyst estimates of a 10 per cent decline, a key positive takeaway from results that otherwise disappointed on earnings.Kotak Institutional Equities maintained its Buy rating with a ₹360 target, noting that consumer spending on cigarettes grew 24 per cent year-on-year, broadly in line with the 25-27 per cent effective price increase, suggesting limited demand destruction so far. CLSA kept an outperform rating with a ₹388 target.More cautious voices include JPMorgan at Neutral with a ₹310 target, and Macquarie at Neutral, ₹300, both flagging near-term uncertainty on the pace of cigarette earnings recovery. HSBC holds at ₹320.The backdrop for all these calls is a steep Q1 earnings miss. Cigarette net revenue fell 25 per cent and segment EBIT dropped 35 per cent year-on-year after an unprecedented tax hike earlier this year shifted cigarettes out of the compensation cess framework into GST and excise duties. ITC has responded with staggered price hikes and launched over 30 new variants to defend market share against illicit trade. Most analysts expect EBIT per stick to recover to pre-tax hike levels by Q4 FY27.The FMCG non-cigarette business grew revenues 12 per cent year-on-year, while the paper segment posted a 38 per cent rise in EBIT.Published on August 3, 2026