Among the various challenges that Russia has faced since its ill-conceived full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one of the most acute has been a severe labor shortage. Russia’s deepening demographic crisis, combined with mass emigration and recruitment of hundreds of thousands of men into the army, has sharply exacerbated the problem. Meanwhile, automation and digitalization—which could partially offset the labor shortage—have advanced too slowly. In recent years, unemployment has remained at a record low of a little more than 2 percent, while estimates of the labor shortage (described by Bank of Russia chair Elvira Nabiullina as unprecedented in Russia’s modern history) have ranged from 1.5 million to 2.5 million workers.
By 2030, Russia will need to bring 10.9 million people into the workforce, according to Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov, with more than 90 percent replacing retiring workers and roughly 800,000 filling newly created positions.
The rapid expansion of defense production has drawn workers away from civilian sectors, intensifying competition for an already scarce workforce. Even in 2024, Russia’s military-industrial complex faced a shortfall of 400,000-500,000 workers, including more than 100,000 engineers and other highly skilled specialists. Russia’s civilian drone sector alone faces a shortage of 14,500 specialists, mostly drone operators, with demand projected to rise more than twentyfold to 300,000 specialists over the next decade.
