One of the toughest races in the nation is taking place in Michigan, as voters in the battleground state weigh whether to buck political trends and keep a Democrat in the governor’s mansion this November.The Great Lakes State typically alternates between eight years of Democratic and Republican gubernatorial rule, a trend that, if followed, would hand the reins from outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) to Rep. John James (R-MI) or GOP businessman Perry Johnson in November.Democrats are hoping to buck that cycle, headed by top gubernatorial contender Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is angling to win her party’s nomination in Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary. Some political experts are giving them hope.
Could Benson keep Michigan blue?
“Michigan has actually not elected a Democrat to succeed another Democrat as governor since 1960—a streak that would seem to caution against designating Benson as a favorite,” writes Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which recently shifted the race from toss-up to leans Democratic. “But these kinds of historical patterns are not set in perpetuity—Pennsylvania, for instance, had a steady eight-years-and-out rhythm for much of the postwar era, which held up until it was broken in 2014.“Consolidation on the gubernatorial primary’s Republican side, combined with a clear Democratic front-runner in Benson… has made the governor’s race look more favorable for Democrats than it did in the spring,” it continues.Some political strategists believe voter angst about President Donald Trump’s policies, particularly over surging gas prices in Michigan, sparked by the Iran war, could hurt Republican gubernatorial contenders James or Johnson in November. No matter who the nominee is, it will be a tough cycle for the GOP, Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told CBS News.“Anyone who isn’t being paid to say otherwise will concede that 2026 is going to be a very difficult year for Republicans,” he said.On the Democratic side, Benson is viewed as somewhat of the natural heir to Whitmer, having served in state government during the entirety of the outgoing governor’s administration. Still, she sought to distinguish herself from Whitmer in several ways, as historical trends show voters could favor a political shift in November.If she were elected, Benson has pledged to sign nine bills into law that Whitmer recently vetoed due to concerns they would create “insurmountable administrative burden” and “endless litigation.” Benson has decried “political games” and said she would sign the same bills into law as governor.Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, front, walks the floor at the Detroit Auto Show as she carries her newly adopted puppy, Lily, which she adopted earlier in the day at the show, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jose Juarez)
