The trade Orioles get: RHP Dean KremerTwins get: OF Jhomnardo ReyesKremer should bounce back to be what he is: dependable rotation depthOrioles: A-
Twins: A- For what the Twins sought — reliable rotation depth — I don’t mind this trade one iota. Kremer is coming off two blow-up starts that ballooned his ERA to 6.50. Two weeks ago, he had a 4.15 season ERA, which was right in line with his career ERA (4.26) and similar to his ERAs for each of the previous three seasons (4.19, 4.10, 4.12). That’s who he is. A solid, league-average starter. Don’t get lost in the sloppiness of the last two outings.Now, Kremer also has clear flaws. Stuff models hate him. He continues to evolve and expand his pitch arsenal, yet he can’t get a left-handed hitter out to save his life right now — they are putting up down-ballot MVP numbers against Kremer this season, slashing .281/.341/.622 — as he has gone splitter-heavy against lefties. But that’s a seven-start sample; across his career, he hasn’t had a huge lefty issue. Kremer is a homer-prone pitcher, yet that problem has typically been less pronounced away from Camden Yards. The fact that opposing hitters’ pull-air percentage — the most likely batted balls to result in home runs — against Kremer is up 12 percent over his career norm this year also strikes me as more small-sample noise. The Twins will probably pay Kremer about $9 million over the 16 months before he is scheduled to reach free agency. They’ll probably get 40 starts with a 4.15 ERA. They’ll probably be happy with that.
