On the one hand, President Donald Trump has presided over a 1.3% increase in real average weekly earnings since the start of his second, nonconsecutive term. Median household incomes are up an average of nearly $3,000 in real terms. While inflation did indeed briefly spike in the aftermath of the Iran offensive, all signs indicate that the oil supply shock is limited as inflation abated last month.On the other hand, Trump’s approval rating is trending perilously close to 40%. And every available poll indicates it’s the economy, stupid.Because Donald Trump is not Joe Biden, he understands that this is an issue for his party, and headed to Michigan to change the narrative. But in a manner dangerously evocative of his feckless predecessor, Trump seems unable to understand that prices, not employment, are the crisis imperiling his popularity.
No matter that manufacturing — the sector endlessly touted by Trump in the Great Lakes State — has actually lost over 100,000 jobs since January of last year. Our 4.2% unemployment rate remains more than a full point below the post-war average, and the labor market simply doesn’t rank high on the concerns of an aging electorate. The No. 1 problem remains affordability, and despite the Iran war bringing gas prices to the top of mind, the real affordability bugaboo missed by the headlines is the generational divide in the housing market.(Washington Examiner illustration; Getty Images)
