Incoming university student numbers from all of Australia’s major overseas source countries are crashing, as authorities’ willingness to grant visas wanes faster than students’ willingness to apply for them.
Fresh data from the Department of Home Affairs reveals an impending downturn in the foreign enrolments that buttress the higher education sector’s economic viability. The number of visa applications lodged from overseas fell 3 per cent last financial year, driven by a 26 per cent slump in demand from the top market of China and less dramatic declines from the second, fifth and sixth markets of India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.
Nepal and Bangladesh, the third and fourth top markets, bucked the trend with applications for higher education visas rising by 58 per cent and 37 per cent respectively. Nevertheless, reduced visa approvals to all six countries fuelled a 16 per cent decrease in the number of visas awarded in 2025-26, compared with the previous year.
Visa approvals have returned to pre-pandemic levels, even though applications remain 10 per cent higher than in 2018-19. And the decline appears set to accelerate, with less than half as many higher education visas awarded to offshore applicants in June 2026 than in June 2025.
