The falling odds of the Clarity Act passing the U.S.
Senate before year-end are a setback for crypto markets, JPMorgan analysts said, adding that parts of the current draft of the crypto bill could discourage institutional participation.
Prediction market odds of the bill passing before year-end have fallen to 37%, the lowest implied probability this year, as the Senate prioritizes other legislation ahead of the summer recess, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report.
The odds currently stand at 37% on Kalshi and 26% on Polymarket.
Disagreements over ethics, enforcement, stablecoin yield, decentralized finance and illicit finance remain unresolved, the analysts noted.
