Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
Growth cools, AI capex holds the floor The IMF projects global growth at 3.0% in 2026, down from a 3.5% average, as war-related energy shocks meet an AI investment boom that stops a sharper downturn.
Disinflation trend breaks globally Global headline inflation is seen rising to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, complicating central bank easing and keeping a risk premium embedded in Latin American currencies.
US resilience anchors risk mood US Q1 GDP grew at a 2.1% annualised pace and personal income rose 0.7% in May, powering a still-solid consumer and giving the Fed reason to remain cautious on cuts.
