St Joseph’s College in Reading survived two world wars, the Great Depression and a pandemic. But it could not weather two years under this Labour government. Next month, its 500 pupils will be among thousands across the country who do not return to the schools from which they broke up for the summer holidays. These are the casualties of the government’s decision to impose VAT on private school fees and remove business rate relief – a policy ministers promised would not have such consequences.

We still haven’t seen the full effects of Labour’s recklessness. The true damage will take time to set in. We know that during the financial crisis, parents struggling to pay fees avoided moving their children until they reached a natural break in their education: the end of primary school, GCSEs or a key stage. Governors exhaust every alternative before admitting defeat, pursuing mergers, selling assets and cutting costs in the hope of surviving another year. But the rot has set in, and faster than expected.

Girls’ schools are disproportionately struggling. More than twice as many have closed as boys’ schools

Century-old Victorian institutions are closing or morphing into unrecognisable organisations. It will not be long before we are left with a sector transformed: a small number of globally elite schools with fees so high they function only as finishing schools for the rich; parents obtaining certificates proving their child has deficiencies which cannot be accommodated in the state sector; and a handful of religious and eccentric schools able to obtain funding outside of normal fees.