BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $685 price forecast on Ulta stock on Wednesday, pointing to a substantial revenue recapture potential.Recapturing Target GMV Offers Incremental GrowthAccording to the analyst note, the $650 million in estimated gross merchandise value (GMV) previously generated through Target locations sat directly on Target’s profit and loss (P&L) statement. Consequently, any sales Ulta re-routes back to its standalone footprint will register as incremental to its comparable store sales.Hutchinson said recapturing a portion of the beauty spending that previously flowed through Ulta Beauty’s Target shop-in-shop locations could add 100 to 315 basis points to annual revenue growth beginning in the third quarter of 2026.BofA modeled three potential win-back scenarios:
20% Recapture: Adds $130 million in revenue (104.9 bp growth impact).
40% Recapture: Adds $260 million in revenue (209.8 bp growth impact).
60% Recapture: Adds $390 million in revenue (314.7 bp growth impact).
