Entering the All-Star break, opposing executives expected the Toronto Blue Jays to be buyers at the trade deadline. A week later, even as the Jays fell further away from a postseason spot, another executive said the Jays were still talking about potentially adding pieces. Even now, just days before Monday’s deadline, multiple executives said the Jays had yet to truly signal their deadline intentions.Other teams certainly think the Jays should and will be sellers, according to league sources who spoke about deadline planning on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, and those teams have sent scouts to Toronto’s recent games to evaluate potentially available players. But the Jays appear to be taking the decision down to the wire.None of this means the Jays won’t be sellers. It remains the likely outcome. But this deadline, unlike Toronto’s 2018, 2019 and 2024 sales, isn’t quite as locked in. Unlike those years, when the Jays’ FanGraphs playoff odds sat below 1 percent five days out from the deadline, the 2026 squad still has a slim chance, with 5.8 percent odds after Tuesday’s loss to the Washington Nationals. General manager Ross Atkins and Toronto’s front office must decide whether that’s enough to hold some pieces, or mix in additions on top of any subtractions.Surely the Jays are doing preparatory work for all sorts of trades, but coming off a run to the World Series last fall, they’re giving this group every opportunity.Here are other Jays notes ahead of the upcoming deadline:The many ways money can impact plansAt the 2024 deadline firesale, Toronto dumped contracts to get under the first collective bargaining tax threshold. The 2026 Jays, per Cot’s Baseball, are projected to be more than $77 million over the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold. It’s almost inconceivable to offload that much money at the deadline.While other wealthy teams, such as the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, may look to take on full contracts to lessen prospect capital going back in a trade, the Jays may be better suited to eat that money to get better returns. It doesn’t mean they won’t match up with wealthy clubs, but the Jays could have better luck with budget-conscious teams such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians.Ken’s Week in Baseball: What will the Mets do with Francisco Lindor?Ken RosenthalThere are also incentives for Toronto to cut payroll beyond saving money. If the Jays’ final CBT payroll is more than $40 million above the first threshold, their first 2027 MLB Draft pick would move back 10 spots, as it did this year, unless it’s inside the top six overall. Ducking below that mark would require moving basically every expiring contract without eating any salary.If the season ended Wednesday, the Jays would have the sixth-highest odds in the 2027 draft lottery (barring changes to the draft system this winter), putting them on the cusp of a protected pick.
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Coming off a World Series run, the Blue Jays appear to be taking their decision of whether to be buyers or sellers down to the wire.















