In this scouting report, I’m taking a look at three players — Mets starter Zac Thornton, Diamondbacks outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt and Cardinals prospect Joshua Báez — whose performances this season have piqued my curiosity.While Thornton’s been pretty spectacular, his ERA and xERA tell different stories, and there’s a reason for that. Waldschmidt came in with a lot of hype and has let some fantasy managers down, however, with an adjustment (or two), he could be what we all hoped for. Then there’s Báez; he’s hit 31 homers in Triple A … and he’s also striking out … a lot. But he’s still tinkering, and if he ever gets called up by the Cards (please, soon), you should know that his power is real.Let’s dive in.Zac Thornton, LHP, NYMLefty starter Zac Thornton has been incredible in his first five turns with the Mets. But while his results have been impressive, the underlying metrics are not as supportive of his current level of success.Thornton’s biggest strengths are his command and his control. He gets ahead in counts consistently and generates above-average chase, which has helped him achieve his 2.43 ERA. He’s been able to do this without getting high swing-and-miss. His 20% strikeout rate is below average, which forces him to rely on managing contact rather than the high-whiff route to success.Against righties, he leans on a cutter and four-seamer combination. Against lefties, he incorporates his sweeper and sinker more heavily.Pitch type (velo)vs. RHHvs. LHHCutter (87 mph)39%46%Four-seamer (92 mph)34%15%Sweeper (80 mph)12%21%Sinker (93 mph)10%16%Changeup (84 mph)5%0%Despite having a five-pitch mix and showing an ability to sequence them effectively, Thornton still lacks an above-average or plus pitch. His cutter features above-average cut, but the rest of the mix has below-average movement and velocity. He does not have the type of “out” pitch that supports high strikeout rates, and he also does not generate weak contact consistently enough to offset the below-average swing-and-miss.As a result, Thornton has limited room for error. There are many pitchers who feature average stuff and are successful by commanding and sequencing well. At the same time, being able to sustain such a low ERA typically requires at least one above average pitch. So far, Thornton doesn’t have that.Additionally, the lack of swing-and-miss becomes more concerning when looking at the type of contact he is allowing. The 20% strikeout rate and 90% zone-contact rate indicate that balls are consistently being put into play. But Thornton has a below-average ground-ball rate (41%), worse-than-average barrel rate (11%), and high pulled-air rate (21%). This type of contact is better quality than his current ERA indicates, and is more in line with his 4.58 xERA and 4.21 SIERA.While he’s only pitched five games at the major-league level, he gave up 1.67 home runs per nine innings in Triple A, which supports the contact he’s allowing at the MLB level.
Zac Thornton has small margin for error; Ryan Waldschmidt struggles with breaking pitches
Andrea Arcadipane discusses the limitations to Zac Thornton's profile, how Ryan Waldschmidt can improve and Joshua Báez's potential.







