College GameDay host Rece Davis picked a side on the most closely watched job in the sport. During a discussion of Big Ten dark horses, he landed on USC."I'm kind of bullish on the Trojans' chances this year, too," Davis said.Bullish is a lean, not a prediction, and that gap matters for a program that has never reached the College Football Playoff in any format.What Rece Davis said about USC, Lincoln RileyThe topic started when co-host Dan Wetzel named the Trojans as his sleeper. "I have a lot of eyes on USC," Wetzel said, pointing to head coach Lincoln Riley's confidence in the roster and the return of quarterback Jayden Maiava.He said Maiava was the best downfield thrower in college football last season and led the nation in yardage on deep passes. He also noted the cost of the offseason, since five of Maiava's top six targets are gone, including first-round pick Makai Lemon.Then Davis set the terms for the coach. "It might well prove to be a make-or-break year for him," Davis said.Co-host Pete Thamel went further. "They could make the playoff or Riley could get fired, and I don't see a whole lot in the middle there," Thamel said. He ended with a flat verdict. "I'm not buying them," Thamel said.USC's 2026 schedule, difficult conference stretchThe glass-half-full outlook runs through the calendar, which features a dogged stretch that, if it goes USC's way, would be huge for the program. Oregon visits Los Angeles on Sept. 26, Washington comes in a week later, USC travels to Penn State on Oct. 10 and Ohio State visits on Oct. 31. The Trojans then get a break before the trip to Indiana on Nov. 14.Another season failing to meet expectations could spell doom for Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThree of the four toughest games sit at the Coliseum, and the team has two bye weeks. That is a real edge in a league where nobody else gets both.Gary Patterson takes over the USC defenseThe defense changed hands again. Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn left for Penn State after two seasons, and Riley replaced him with Gary Patterson, the former TCU head coach who is now 66. Davis noticed the same thing."Gary Patterson at 66 has taken his guitar and his music to Los Angeles and will try to put together a winning defensive tune for the Trojans," Davis said.Nine of the 16 defenders who played 200 or more snaps last season are back, and most of them are young. New scheme, young front, senior quarterback. That combination usually needs a few weeks, and USC gets three games before Oregon shows up.Why the USC playoff case still looks thinThis is where I split from the podcast. Riley is 35-18 in four seasons in Los Angeles. Through last season, he was 6-13 against ranked opponents, and he has not beaten a top-10 team since he arrived.The issue hasn't been the talent. The Trojans signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the 2026 cycle and pay like a program that expects titles. The issue shows up when they face a defense that takes away the easy throw. They lost to Notre Dame and Oregon by double digits last fall and gave away a game at Illinois.Southern California’s Jayden Maiava is one of the most impressive downfield passers in college football. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectThe people who cover the league see the Trojans for what they are, too. USC was picked fourth in the Big Ten preseason media poll, behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. SP+ puts the Trojans 13th nationally with 7.8 average wins. Both descriptions land in the same place: a good team sitting under the three programs that will decide the conference.USC probably needs 10 wins to get into the playoff field, and that math requires beating at least two of Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Riley has spent four years in L.A. showing he does not win those games.Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow