Show Caption
A little over four months before Election Day, the Texas Senate race to replace U.S. Sen. John Cornyn remains contentious, as a new poll shows the Democratic candidate has opened a 5-point lead over the Republican candidate.The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) released a new poll on Tuesday, July 28, showing Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton trailing Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico.The poll comes after two other polls in late June showed Paxton and Talarico tied within each poll's margin of error.Here's a deeper look into the Texas Senate poll from TPOR.Talarico leads with moderates, independentsThe poll was conducted from July 15-17, polling 1,048 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. It was conducted by TPOR, which labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. Democratic strategist Luke Warford directs it.The poll found that Talarico (45%) leads Paxton (40%) by 5 points in the U.S. Senate race — a 2-point increase from TPOR’s post-runoff poll in May — with Talarico continuing to retain strong support from moderates and independents.The poll also found that Talarico's performance is driven by voters saying Talarico better understands the economic challenges working Texans face than Paxton by 7 points, and that they trust Talarico to address affordability issues over Paxton by a 9-point margin.However, the poll also found that 14% of Texas voters remain undecided, with 19% leaning toward Paxton, 10% toward Talarico, and 5% toward Libertarian Ted Brown.Among Black and Latino voters, Talarico is strongly favored, leading Black voters by 63 points (71% to 8%) and Latino voters by 46 points (66% to 20%). Paxton, on the other hand, leads among white voters by 20 points (53% to 33%).The poll was done days after The Texas Tribune and ProPublica published a joint investigation on July 7 alleging that Paxton had voted in six elections in the past two years using a former address. This led the Collin County Democratic Party to file a complaint on July 14 with the state's chief elections officer to determine whether Paxton had violated the state's election laws.Paxton's campaign told USA TODAY on July 17 that it disputes the allegations made in the investigation and that Paxton is a "lawful, registered Texas voter in full compliance with the law."What do recent Texas Senate polls show?Before this poll, two polls in June showed the race was deadlocked.A New York Times/Siena poll, published on June 30, shows Paxton tied at 47% with Talarico.The poll comes after a June 23 poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project that showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, a 1-point gap within the survey's margin of error.Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
