A prolonged blockade of Ukrainian seaports could leave the market awash with agricultural produce throughout the marketing year and purchase prices are already falling below the full cost of production.
Source: Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC)
Details: According to estimates by the UAC, production of the main grain and oilseed crops in the 2026/2027 marketing year will amount to around 81.4 million tonnes, and, taking carryover stocks into account, the total volume of produce available for consumption and export will reach approximately 85 million tonnes.
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Ukraine needs to export around 67 million tonnes of agricultural produce. However, if the seaports remain closed, export capacity could shrink to 1.7 million tonnes a month, which could create a surplus of produce on the domestic market.
