One of the defining memes of Trump’s second term has been the “TACO trade” – the belief that Trump Always Chickens Out when confronted by a determined adversary, volatile markets or hostile public opinion. Until now, events have borne it out.
He backed down from a ruinous trade war with China when Beijing retaliated by cutting supplies of rare earths. He retreated when a united Europe confronted him over his designs on Greenland. And he backed away from threats to destroy Iranian civilization when Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, instead signing what has rightly been seen as one of the most humiliating surrender documents in recent American history: a promise to lift sanctions and even deliver a $300 billion reconstruction fund if Tehran reopened the Strait.
Yet just 30 days into what was supposed to be a 60-day ceasefire, that deal has already fallen apart. This time, those betting on another TACO may be disappointed. Having allowed himself to be bamboozled by Israel into a reckless and illegal war, Trump finds himself with no good options, leaving him little choice but to escalate regardless of the economic and political cost.
So badly has American power and prestige been weakened by the failure of Operation Epic Fury to dislodge the Iranian regime and force an unconditional surrender that even the 14-point MOU, with all its concessions to Tehran, has not been enough to end the war. The MOU required Iran to reopen the strait to international shipping, toll-free, for 60 days. Tehran read it as reopening on Iranian terms, with vessels confined to Iranian-designated lanes; Washington read it as freedom of navigation restored on pre-war terms. Both sides signed a text they knew meant different things, each calculating the other would blink.
