Next Billion-Dollar Startups MethodologyTrueBridge CapitalHow We Choose The Next Billion-Dollar StartupsSince 2015, Forbes has partnered with TrueBridge Capital to identify the fast-growing private companies most likely to become tomorrow's category-defining businesses. The Next Billion-Dollar Startups list spotlights the most promising companies on the trajectory to achieving billion-dollar valuations.While we periodically review the methodology behind the Next Billion-Dollar Startups, the core framework has remained largely consistent since the list’s inception. The process begins with nominations from leading venture investors, founders and members of the startup ecosystem, alongside companies identified independently through ongoing market research. Nomination alone does not influence selection. Every eligible company is evaluated using the same analytical framework. Each candidate must be based in the United States, meaning their headquarters or CEO resides domestically; the company must be privately held and venture-backed; its current valuation must be under $1 billion; and it must be willing to share key data for analysis.Unsurprisingly, this year’s cohort is influenced heavily by where innovation and investment have become most concentrated: artificial intelligence. Agentic AI, in particular, has moved beyond performing simple tasks to executing increasingly complex work across software development, legal services, healthcare, cybersecurity and financial operations. Identifying the companies with the strongest long-term potential has become increasingly important — and increasingly difficult. That’s why the Next Billion-Dollar Startups methodology relies on data rather than reputation.Next Billion-Dollar Startups MethodologyTRUEBRIDGE CAPITALAs the list's data partner, TrueBridge collects and analyzes all confidential submissions. This structure allows companies to share sensitive financial and operating information — including revenue, customer metrics and valuations — with confidence. Any company-specific information ultimately published is obtained through Forbes' editorial reporting.MORE FOR YOUThe analysis combines submitted company data with publicly available information to create a comprehensive understanding of each business. The analytical model considers multiple dimensions of company performance, including revenue scale and growth, customer or user adoption, workforce expansion, capital efficiency, valuation and financing history. Rather than emphasizing any single metric, the model evaluates how these indicators collectively reflect a company's momentum and long-term potential.The methodology also considers factors that are difficult to capture through financial metrics alone. Founding teams are evaluated based on the entrepreneurial track record of its founders, as well as their technical expertise The companies themselves are judged not only for their competitive positioning, but by how durable and viable their markets will be long-term.. Those factors provide additional context where numbers alone cannot fully explain a company's trajectory.Although the model continues to evolve along with the private change, its core goal hasn’t changed since the list launched more than a decade ago: identify the most exceptional companies before they become household names. Many previous honorees have since crossed the billion-dollar valuation threshold, completed public offerings or become acquisition targets, reinforcing the value of combining confidential operating data with a disciplined, repeatable evaluation framework.Ultimately, the Next Billion-Dollar Startups is designed to identify more than the fastest-growing startups of the moment. It seeks to recognize companies with the potential to define the next generation of technology.Companies interested in learning more about the methodology or receiving notification when next year’s submissions open can find additional information at www.submitnextbilldata.com.