U.S. stocks looked to open near record highs on Monday, as investors built on momentum from last week into at least the first session of the new year.
Contracts on the Dow rose by about 200 points, or 0.6%, ahead of the opening bell. Nasdaq futures outperformed as technology stocks advanced, and S&P 500 futures were up nearly 0.7%.
U.S. equities posted another year of solid gains in 2021, rising by 27% and delivering a rare third consecutive double-digit annual percentage increase. Within the S&P 500, the energy and real estate sectors outperformed, gaining more than 42% each during the year for these sectors' best annual gains on record.
Still, the blue-chip index's robust overall rise was powered on a stock-by-stock basis by just a handful of mega-cap names. According to Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin, the five largest components of the S&P 500 (or Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google) together returned 37% last year – and now constitute about 23% of the entire index.
"In 2022, variables associated with earnings and valuation will determine the performance of the S&P 500 index and its underlying constituents," Kostin wrote in a note Monday. He expects the index to rise another about 7% to end 2022 at 5,100, with his outlook one among several Wall Street predictions calling for a gain to more than 5,000 for the S&P 500 this year.