KBRA Assigns AA Rating to the County of Erie, New York General Obligation Bonds, Consisting of Public Improvement Serial Bonds, Series 2026A and Refunding Serial Bonds, Series 2026B; The Outlook is Stable

KBRA Assigns AA Rating to the County of Erie, New York General Obligation Bonds, Consisting of Public Improvement Serial Bonds, Series 2026A and Refunding Serial Bonds, Series 2026B; The Outlook is Stable

KBRA assigns a long-term rating of AA to the County of Erie, NY General Obligation Bonds, consisting of Public Improvement Serial Bonds, Series 2026A and Refunding Serial Bonds, Series 2026 B. Concurrently, KBRA affirms the long-term rating of AA on outstanding General Obligation Bonds of the County. The Outlook on all obligations is Stable.

The rating reflects Erie County, New York’s strong fiscal and financial management framework, manageable debt and fixed cost burden, fully funded pensions and prudent reserve maintenance. Resilient revenue performance and careful spending controls continue to drive favorable operating results. Ongoing economic diversification and solid tax base growth further support the rating.

Factors counterbalancing the abovementioned strengths include the concentration risk of economically sensitive sales tax receipts, which comprise more than half of General Fund revenues, and volatile mandated spending requirements associated with the County’s relationship with the Erie County Medical Center Corporation (“ECMCC”), a public benefit corporation and component unit of the County. ECMCC exposure is becoming more correlated with federal and State funding risk associated with the provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill (“H.R.1”), as are spending pressures related to social services. Litigation risk and correctional facility contingent liability exposure have also become more prominent in the past year.