Nine months ago, on September 10, 2025 Oracle announced what seemed to many to be the deal of the century! A $300 billion deal with OpenAI. The market went wild. Oracle stock briefly went up by 43% (and ultimately even a bit higher). Larry Ellison’s net worth briefly leapt by $100 billion. The Wall St. Journal gushed:The whole thing never made sense though. The next morning, inn an essay called Peak Bubble I warned thatYet Oracle continued to rise! But not for long. Its stock stood at $307 per share at the close of trading on September 10, and briefly closed as high as $328 ten days later. Now, as I write this, it’s hovering around $120.In the intervening nine months, the market has grown wary of all this circular financing stuff. Mocking illustrations like this one (from yesterday) have become widespread:permabera@Minointerista@MikeZaccardi it's mostly circular accounting tricks, there are no fucking earnings m8 8:11 PM · Jul 26, 2026 · 777 Views4 Replies · 20 Likes§All of which brings me to the present. Yesterday, news broke that Nvidia is considering offering a $250 billion backstop for an OpenAI-led data center. Which led last night to considerable skepticismJames Chanos@RealJimChanosSo we are at the point in the cycle where $NVDA has to provide financing guarantees for roughly 2/3rds of the cost of the chips it is selling to the data center project…?! Lol, ok.The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetterBREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio.