in briefDeputy Premier Ben Carroll has challenged Jacinta Allen for Victorian Labor leadership.The party faces difficult political circumstances just four months out from an election.Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces an open leadership challenge, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll officially vying for the top role."It is clear that the Premier has lost the majority of our Caucus," Carroll said in a statement on Monday as he made his intentions for nomination known.Allan herself has said she will stand in a forthcoming leadership contest.If she falls, her successor will inherit difficult political circumstances just four months out from Labor's most challenging state election in over a decade.The party's polling has collapsed as it campaigns for a fourth consecutive term against the rising popularity of One Nation. Polling suggests voters are frustrated with the high cost of living, rising state debt, and infrastructure delays.News that makes senseYour trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.Victorian Liberal business spokesperson James Newbury said a change of leadership was unlikely to alter the party's fortunes ahead of the election."Changing the leader will not change the problems that Victorians face," Newbury said, urging Labor MPs to hold a vote of no confidence in Allan and trigger an early election."Victorians deserve a say. They don't need a second unelected premier."Who could replace Allan as Victorian Labor leader?Carroll has told Allan he will be nominating for leadership of the state Labor Party, despite denying he was seeking the leadership role last month."The prospect of a Liberal-One Nation Government that will cut schools, health and front line services is simply too high a risk to ignore," Carroll said.The challenge will trigger a party-wide ballot. No other candidates have yet emerged.Victoria's Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams is reportedly being put forward as deputy leader.Allan said in a letter to Victoria's state secretary, seen by SBS News, that she will stand as a candidate.MPs reportedly fear that her determination to hang on could plunge the party into chaos, as a leadership ballot requires a vote from the entire Victorian Labor caucus and members which could take weeks.Labor in a 'very risky position' ahead of November electionsAn opinion poll conducted by Resolve indicated 43 per cent of Victorians prefer Liberal leader Jess Wilson for state premier, compared with 24 per cent who favour Allan.The primary vote of both major parties was pegged at 27 per cent, with One Nation just behind on 22 per cent.Zareh Ghazarian, associate professor in politics at Monash University, told SBS News that Allan and Labor's popularity has been falling since former premier Dan Andrews left office. Once a model of stability, the party is now entering "the great unknown"."This is a very risky position to be in, because we know that when parties go into periods of leadership instability, leadership turmoil, voters turn against them," Ghazarian said.Ben Carroll has been the deputy leader of Victorian Labor since 2023 and comes from the right of the party. Source: AAP / Luis Ascui"We've seen that in Victoria with the Liberal Party going through this several times over the last 10 years. Now it's Labor's turn."Allan has been under sustained pressure to call a royal commission into alleged corruption on major Big Build infrastructure projects across the state.A key employment driver and potential vote winner, Big Build has been a significant contributor to Victoria's debt — set to hit $165 billion next year — and raised questions about criminal infiltration of the construction unions involved, following a series of reports from Nine newspapers.Issues of law and order have also hampered Labor, as has the Commonwealth Games cancellation — the event is currently being held in Glasgow, Scotland and cost Victorian taxpayers $598 million. Andrews announced in 2023 that costs had skyrocketed to over $6 billion, and instead of paying that amount for the Games, he would deliver $2 billion in upgrades to Victoria's sporting facilities."Voters have really not been impressed by how the government's gone about answering these sorts of challenges," Ghazarian said.Can Labor turn it around?With polling split three ways, experts are flagging an increasing breakdown of the two-party system and the predictability that goes with it.One Nation, having secured strong results in the South Australian state election and the NSW Farrer by-election, is expected to play a key role in the upcoming Victorian one — despite not yet having named a state party leader.Geoffrey Robinson, senior lecturer in politics at Deakin University, told SBS News that Labor faces a "substantial challenge" from two directions.If lessons are to be learned from One Nation's success in SA, a new Labor leader should look to their safe seats."The government's shown a talent for rubbing rural opinion up the wrong way, and that will probably be something I'd imagine that, if Carroll gets to be premier, he will try to address pretty quickly," Robinson said.An incumbent party changing leader before an election has proved occasionally successful in the past — the replacement of Kevin Rudd with Julia Gillard ahead of the 2010 election turned things around for federal Labor — but more often than not it backfires. Robinson said Victorian Labor likely has little to lose."People have just tuned off Allan and her lack of popularity is dragging the government down," he said.Conceding the need for an inquiry into Big Build could be an easy early win that may improve Labor's fortunes, he argued, but he ultimately predicts a Coalition minority government supported by One Nation will emerge after 28 November.Allan has said that if there is any veracity to corruption claims about the Big Build scheme they should be directed to police.However, Ghazarian argues it is not "smooth sailing" for the Victorian Coalition, which has also faced significant internal division for years. It would need to win 16 seats to form an outright majority."It's going to be close, but it looks to be an election where Labor will lose ground," Ghazarian said. "Whether they'll lose the ground to lose government, I think that's going to be the big question."A national lesson?Federal politicians will be watching the race for Victorian premiership closely as the political battle offers some parallels.Voters tired of a long-standing Labor leadership, struggling with cost of living pressures, and increasingly turning to fringe parties for answers suggest lessons for federal Labor ahead of the expected 2028 election.However, Robinson notes that a Coalition-One Nation government could turn out to be a "chaotic mess" that further exposes Liberal factional divisions, to the benefit of federal Labor."Governments don't have a very long lifespan in Australia," he said. "Maybe that's a lesson for politicians."For the latest from SBS News, download our app and subscribe to our newsletter.