The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.68%, down 0.49% for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 1.07% to 18.58 as investors tracked the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices. Gold (CM:XAUUSD) gained 0.15% to $4,055.40, while oil (CM:CL) fell 2.12% to $90.42. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) declined 1.08% to $64,103.67.
Iran Tensions, Oil Prices, and the Fed Shape Trading
Geopolitical risk remained a key market driver as investors weighed the chances of U.S.-Iran peace talks against the threat of a wider conflict. Oil prices moved sharply during the week, raising concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and make the Federal Reserve’s next move harder to predict.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as oil pulled back, although the 10-year yield had earlier reached its highest level since January 2025. The move followed a rise in oil toward $100 per barrel, which increased fears that fuel and transport costs could slow progress on inflation.
Investors remain divided over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Policymakers must balance persistent price pressure against the risk that tighter financial conditions could weaken economic growth.
