There may not be a memorandum of understanding that is so misunderstood and forgotten so quickly as the one the United States signed with Iran on June 17.It began unraveling less than a month later. The U.S. on July 11 relaunched at full scale strikes on Iranian targets, resuming the war it began alongside Israel at the end of February against the Islamic Republic, a foe to both countries for 47 years.Iran, meanwhile, continued to strike commercial ships traveling the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway critical to the passage of a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas exports. On July 13, President Donald Trump said he resumed the blockade of ships entering or departing Iranian ports.
Trump said the MOU was done.(Washington Examiner Illustration; AP Photos; Getty Images)
“Look, memorandum of understanding when you’re dealing with sleaze bags don’t mean much,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on July 13 in the hours after he reimposed the blockade.The paradox is that even as the memorandum of understanding takes a flier toward the wastepaper basket, its effects, coupled with the effects of the war, may be long-lasting: The entrenchment of Iran in Lebanon, the codification of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, the militarization of the Iranian regime, the diminishment of U.S. deterrence, and the damage to U.S. alliances.“May” is the keyword: The Middle East has been in such flux since the Oct. 7, 2023, deadly Hamas raids in Israel, and more so since the United States and Israel launched the current Iran war on Feb. 28, that confident predictions may be a fool’s errand, experts say.A lot has changed in very little time, and the “status quo” has changed so frequently, it may not make sense to speak of one, said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the venerable London-based Chatham House policy institute.“There is no status quo, there is no status quo ante,” she said. “All that has been pulverized.”Still, there are three areas where change is already tangible:The US recognized Iran’s stake in Lebanon
