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Editor’s Note: In 2012, Mark Zuckerberg paid $1 billion for Instagram. At the time, many thought he had overpaid. Today, it’s considered one of the most successful acquisitions in tech history.

My colleague Luke Lango believes AI may be approaching a similar turning point.

He argues that the first phase of the AI boom rewarded the companies building the technology. But as those companies grow larger, the next opportunities may come from the smaller innovators they decide they need to own.

In today’s guest essay, Luke explains why he believes that shift is already underway, the clues he watches for and the framework he uses to search for potential winners.