Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 9% in July, but crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said the gains are likely temporary and August and September could erase them, just as they did in 2018 and 2022.

Why Cowen Says Bitcoin Is Stuck Between Two Key Levels

Cowen said in a youtube video that Bitcoin is ping-ponging between the bear market resistance band above and the 200-week moving average below, with neither level breaking convincingly in either direction.

Every approach to the resistance band has produced a rejection, and every dip toward the 200-week moving average has produced a bounce.

He said this setup mirrors 2018 almost exactly. Both years saw a low in February, a retest of that low in late June, and then a July countertrend rally.