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Although the midterms are still months away, potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election are starting to float to the top, with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Vice President JD Vance leading their respective primaries.The newest poll from Emerson College, released on Thursday, July 23, shows Buttigieg leading among Democratic voters with 19%, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17% and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tied at 13%.On the Republican side, it's a very tight two-horse race, as Vance leads with 39%, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio coming in with 38% of GOP primary voters. In a distant third is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with only 5%, while 9% of voters are undecided.According to Emerson College, the poll was conducted between July 19 and July 20 among 1,100 likely voters. The margin of error of Thursday’s poll is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.A relatively quiet TrumpWith such a seemingly tight race for the GOP nomination in 2028, President Donald Trump has so far declined to endorse a successor.However, the president did praise both Vance and Rubio as a potential “perfect ticket” during a May 11 White House event.“I do believe that’s a dream team, but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstances,” Trump said. “I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”A fluid polling sceneButtigieg and Vance’s leads in Thursday’s poll come a month after the same pollster published a poll in June in which the two candidates led their respective primaries.However, outside of Emerson College polls, both candidates have seen differing performances.An AtlasIntel poll conducted May 4 to May 7 found Ocasio-Cortez leading Democratic candidates at 26%, followed by Buttigieg and Newsom. Former Vice President Kamala Harris ranked fourth, with roughly half of Ocasio-Cortez’s support.On the Republican side, in the same AtlasIntel poll, Rubio led with about 45% of primary voters, while Vance and DeSantis trailed behind.Then, a McLaughlin & Associates survey, released June 25, showed Harris leading Democratic voters at 26%, ahead of Newsom at 16% and Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. On the Republican side, Vance held a wider lead at 35%, compared with Rubio's 15%.Bad news for Republicans and Trump?Apart from looking ahead to 2028, Thursday’s poll also had possible bad news for the GOP ahead of November’s midterms as the party seeks to maintain its hold on Congress.According to the Emerson College poll, Democrats led Republicans by 11% in a generic congressional ballot. “Driving the Democrats’ significant lead on the ballot are women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56% to 39%, while men are more split: 49% support the Democrat and 44% the Republican,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release.Democrats’ strong performance also comes as Trump remains deeply unpopular with Americans, with the poll finding that only 39% approve of his time in office.Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
