SummaryTrump escalates warnings of "massive attack": Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks and said he is "close" to ordering a massive new strike (Axios interview).Houthis escalate: The Houthis threatened Saudi Aramco after attacking two Saudi oil tankers and expanding their blockade of Saudi shipping.Oil jumps: Brent crude climbed back above $100 as Red Sea and Hormuz shipping disruptions intensified.Rubio says no talks are happening: Rubio said Iran is "begging for a deal" while warning Tehran will continue to "pay a very heavy price."Overnight tit-for-tat persists: The US carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran as Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait reported fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks.Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 30% · No 71%View full market & trade on Polymarket New Iraq PM Tries Hand at MediationAfter being at the White House just last week, Iraq's new "Washington approved" prime minister is apparently now the new shuttle diplomacy guy, after Qatari and Pakistani peace efforts on Iran have come to naught. The NY Times is reporting Thursday afternoon that "Iraq’s prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, is in Tehran carrying a proposal for a cease-fire between Iran and the United States, according to Iranian and Iraqi officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about matters of national security."But the messaging apparently went the other way to, from Tehran to Washington, per more from the Times:Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told local news media that the Iraqi leader had shared with Iranian officials his “insights and impressions” from his recent meeting with Trump. Araghchi added that Tehran and Washington don’t have a problem when it comes to finding mediators, “the problem is America’s attitude.”At the moment, Trump is threatening new, massive attacks on Iran, which could come tonight or at any time, with the whole region on edge and the State Department telling Americans to urgently find flights out of the Middle East.Trump "Close" To Bigger Strikes Than Ever Before: InterviewPresident Trump has newly been cited in Axios as saying he's seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran. He's previewing strikes that would be bigger than anything before, including in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury, when dozens of Iranian government and military leaders were killed, including the Ayatollah. There's also chatter that Israel could rejoin the attacks this time, after Israeli jets have been absent in the past twelve days of renewed bombing raids.However, Axios stipulated that Trump has yet to make a final decision. Mideast regional Al Hadath and Israel's Channel 12 are separately reporting that US officials have told regional allies to "be prepared" for such a new major assault on Iran.Axios writes, "In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn't made a determination yet." This as Brent Crude has climbed past $100 per barrel on Thursday, and as the prospect of all-out war remains unpopular among American voters, especially with months to go ahead of the midterms."I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," the president said. And more via the Axios interview:Trump said Israel "would join in two minutes if I ask them to," but added that "we don't need anybody" to launch a new operation against Iran.He also said there would be "consequences" for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel.Trump said the Iranians "want to negotiate" but are not ready to make a deal at the moment."They haven't received enough pain yet," he said.Two regional sources with knowledge of mediation efforts said Iranian leadership hasn't accepted the latest proposal put forward."We are trying, but the Iranians are not being helpful," one of them said.The Houthis have meanwhile been ratcheting their involvement, apparently having been called upon by Tehran to help it keep leverage over key oil transit chokepoints. All the while, there have been widespread reports of the Pentagon surging large aircraft, especially refueling tankers, from Europe to the CENTCOM area.Houthis Threaten Saudi AramcoAfter the Iranian-aligned Houthis confirmed they struck two Saudi oil tankers as part of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, as a second chokepoint on global oil supplies opens alongside the Strait of Hormuz, on Thursday the Shia militant group is now openly threatening Aramco facilities inside the kingdom... or at least some unnamed officials are telling regional media.The Houthis have characterized their campaign as "a blockade for a blockade," saying it is intended to pressure Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already been blockading Houthis controlled-ports in Yemen for years, which hearkens back to a Gulf vs. Houthi chiefly aerial war that opened in 2015.via Saudi AramcoThe group is threatening to carry on with attacks even if Saudi vessels seek to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. US regional allies are currently scrambling to establish alternative energy shipping routes that avoids the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.Al Jazeera has cited unnamed Houthis sources who say that Saudi Arabia's Aramco oil facilities could be next:The ship, confirmed by both the Houthis and British maritime organisations, was struck on its top deck, which caught fire – a less severe outcome than a hull strike, which typically causes a vessel to sink. The Houthis claim both ships were hit, though British monitors say the second tanker made a U-turn and redirected toward the Suez Canal.At least 10 vessels attempting to cross Bab el-Mandeb strait have been forced to reroute towards the Suez Canal instead, facing a much longer journey around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The two targeted vessels had been heading to India and China.The Houthis describe the campaign as “a blockade for a blockade”, warning that Saudi Arabia must lift its blockade on Yemen or face further consequences. Houthi officials say they plan to escalate operations to target Saudi oil tankers and ships even when not crossing Bab el-Mandeb – meaning vessels rerouting via the Suez Canal could still be at risk.Houthi sources also say Aramco oil facilities could become a future target if the blockade on Yemen is not lifted.The Houthis have until this week largely remained on the sidelines of the US-Israel war on Iran, but are now clearly ratcheting their involvement, helping Tehran with keeping leverage over global oil shipping.It was in March of 2022 that the last major strike on Saudi Aramco facilities was reported. Prior to that, 2019 saw the major Abqaiq–Khurais attack. https://t.co/kHxR0KKD2U
