It’s the question implicit in every conversation about buying, selling, and threading the needle, about walk years and team control, about assets and capital.What’s it actually going to take?What should the actual return look like for Tarik Skubal or Mason Miller or CJ Abrams to prompt their teams to contemplate selling them now? Unlike the typical talk-radio caller, the blanket “a couple of prospects” doesn’t work for executives.To get a better sense of how some players on the trade block might be valued, I looked at their historical predecessors. Player X has produced at a roughly similar level to Player Y from a few years back; what did it take to acquire Player Y? I compare those players on their fWAR from this season through the All-Star break and their fWAR going back two additional seasons beyond that. Typically, though not always, the comparisons will align players with similar long-term control.Stats are updated through Tuesday.Tarik SkubalAge: 29
Contract status: Owed $9.5 million in 2026, then a free agent
2026 stats: 6-5, 2.83 ERA in 82 2/3 innings, 2.2 fWAR (14.8 fWAR since 2024)Comparison: 2015 David Price
Stats: 9-4, 2.53 ERA in 146 innings, 4.1 fWAR (13.7 fWAR prior two-plus seasons)In the last decade, the only starter with a recent resume in line with Skubal’s who was moved at the deadline was Max Scherzer, traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers in 2021. But Scherzer was dealt alongside Trea Turner, making that trade a difficult comp for others.So let’s go back to the last time the Tigers were holding a chip like this, with Price in 2015. That Detroit team had turned a decent start into a late-deadline decision to sell; this Detroit team faces similar uncertainty at the deadline, though thanks to a turnaround from a poor start.In 2015, one year after acquiring Price at the deadline from Tampa Bay, the Tigers sent him to Toronto in exchange for Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt. Norris was the big get as a top-25 prospect in the sport. Boyd had just made his debut as a potential back-end starter, and Labourt had made the Futures Game despite pedestrian on-field results.That trio didn’t click for Detroit, largely because Norris pitched below the league average during his tenure with the Tigers. Still, Detroit should be looking for a similar package this time around: a top-25 to top-50 prospect headliner, a valuable second piece that’s preferably in or close to the big leagues, and more of a lower-level flier.Joe Ryan’s trade value evokes a comparison to José Berríos, who was dealt for two solid prospects. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)Joe RyanAge: 30
