July 21 update: this post, first published on Saturday, July 18, was updated with further details of how the release is pointing at one precise date.This September, Apple hold a special event, leading up to the iPhone 18 Pro release date. That’s as certain as it can be, because it’s the routine the company has followed every single year since 2012. Here’s why this history can help us pin down this year’s special event pretty much unequivocally. It’ll also be when the next iPhone software, iOS 27 will launch following the newly released public beta — read this for whether you should install this now, or how to uninstall if you have downloader’s remorse.Apple iPhone 17 Pro — when will the successor be announced?AFP via Getty ImagesiPhone 18 Pro Release Date: Apple’s HistoryI’ve researched the keynote dates for every iPhone release since the first one, to look for release date clues — and there are some clear conclusions to be drawn from the evidence. ForbesApple iOS 27 Release Date: How To Download 1st iPhone Public Beta — Starting NowBy David PhelanThe first iPhone was unveiled in January 2007 and went on sale in June that year. The next three iPhones, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 were announced and released in June 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. MORE FOR YOUThen there was the iPhone 4S on Oct. 4, 2011, the last unveiled while Steve Jobs was alive, and the first keynote hosted by Tim Cook. That was the first fall release — a pattern Apple has followed every year since then for its flagship iPhones. I’ve been studying the exact keynote dates for the following 14 years and I think it means there are certain rules Apple has in mind, which can tell us when the next iPhone will be released.iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: A Strict September WindowAfter the iPhone 4S, every single iPhone keynote has fallen in the first half of September. In every year since 2012, the iPhone keynote has always been between Sept. 7 and Sept. 14 apart from one exception: 2020. That was the year of Covid, and Apple’s keynote fell one day outside that window, on Tuesday, Sept. 15. Oh, and it’s never held a keynote on Sept. 11.iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: The Labor Day FactorIf you’re going to announce something in September, then the public holiday that starts the month is always going to play a part.This public holiday is a big element in Apple’s scheduling. No surprise — after all, if you have an event in September, then a holiday always has to be taken into account. Labor Day always falls on the first Monday of September, that is between Sept. 1 and Sept. 7. Most commonly, Apple has held its keynote exactly eight days after Labor Day, in 2013, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2025, because the company favors a Tuesday event. However, it has never held a September event before Labor Day. If it did so this year, for instance, the Tuesday before Labor Day would be Sept. 1. Not only does that feel like too much of a break with tradition, it would also clash with the big European electronics trade show IFA which is held in Berlin each year. This year, that opens on Friday, Sept. 4 with press events on the days before that and significant numbers of journalists will need be in Berlin for that. Apple wouldn’t like to dilute the impact of its announcement by seeing everyone rush away to Germany for another event. Plus, selected press will need time to concentrate on the new products for review. On the other hand, Apple has previously announced its keynote date at exactly that time. Coincidence, or a chance to grab the news cycle away from other manufacturers? I’ll let you make up your own mind.iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: No Keynote On Day After Labor DayWhatever date Labor Day has been, the keynote has always been at least two days later. Here’s the piece of evidence that reveals the exact date of the keynote, I believe: Apple has never held its keynote on the day after Labor Day (that is a travel day for guests, staff and press to get to Cupertino and Apple understandably seems reluctant to ask people to travel, or come back into work, on a holiday). Not everyone is as convinced as I am. The latest report from 9to5Mac is still open-minded to a later keynote date. “Apple typically launches the iPhone the week after Labor Day, which might mean Monday, September 14,” it said, and even went on to comment as I have about previous late Labor Day timetables. “An unveiling as early as Wednesday, September 9 is certainly possible though. In 2022, Apple launched the new iPhone two days after Labor Day, and might do the same again,” it added. It concluded that early-to-mid September will be the keynote window, before noting that one phone, the base iPhone 18, won’t be unveiled until spring 2027, so won’t be part of this fall’s keynote. I believe that’s true and the iPhone 18 will be unveiled alongside the iPhone 18e and, perhaps, a second-generation iPhone Air.iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: The Surely Certain Keynote DateAlthough it hasn’t been announced, confidential calendars in Cupertino will doubtless have the day marked already.In 2015, Labor Day fell as it does this year on Monday, Sept. 7. What did Apple do that year? It held its keynote on Wednesday, Sept. 9. Despite what you may have heard, I am stone-cold certain this will be the date of this year’s keynote, as well. iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: Other Dates For Your CalendarAfter the keynote on Sept. 9, other dates fall into the schedule like clockwork. First, pre-orders will open on the following Friday, if previous years are a guide. That means Friday, Sept. 11. Next, iOS 27 will go on general release. This will almost certainly be on Monday, Sept. 14, though it’s possible it could slip by a day or two. It will emphatically be several days before the next iPhones go on sale. The exact time of day could change but if it’s the same as last year, then the pre-orders will open at 5 a.m. Pacific, 8 a.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. BST (that’s the time in the U.K., British Summer Time). The point is that pre-orders open at the exact same moment wherever you are in the globe, so nobody gets a jump on the stock — though would-be buyers in Apple’s home town of Cupertino, for instance, will need to get up early to be in with a chance of snagging their favorite model, color and storage capacity. Some years Apple adds an extra detail, where customers can choose their preferred model, drop it into the shopping bag and leave it there so when the pre-orders open, they can buy the iPhone they’ve picked — a simple way to jump the line. iPhone 18 Pro Release Date: When First Reviews AppearThe first comments in the form of reviews from selected press will happen in the days before the phone goes on sale. I think this will be on Wednesday, Sept. 16, though Tuesday, Sept. 15 is also in the frame. In fact, given the likelihood that the keynote day is on Wednesday rather than Tuesday, the review date seems likely to slip to the second of those days. No reviewer gets to see the new products until the special event is done, so to give maximum review time, Sept. 16 seems favorite. Alongside the iPhone 18 Pro there will also be the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and there’s another wildcard, the first folding iPhone, possibly called the iPhone 18 Ultra. Whatever it’s called, this phone is almost certainly going to be announced at the same keynote, but there are conflicting rumors about when it will appear. For a new product category such as this, there could be a delay. Just as the iPhone X was announced alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus in 2017, it’s possible the iPhone Ultra will be revealed on Sept. 9, but go on sale several weeks later. Reviews of the folding iPhone will likely appear a few days before it goes on sale. If there are no production delays, then the review embargo will be the same as for the iPhone 18 Pro. That would match last year’s schedule when review embargoes for iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max and iPhone Air lifted in the same moment. This year it looks like there will be a maximum of three, not four, new iPhones this September — though two new Apple Watches are expected as well, so reviewers will still be kept busy.iPhone 18 Pro Release Date PredictionEven if the keynote date is on a different day that week — and I’m saying it won’t be — the onsale date for the iPhone 18 Pro should be the same.Alongside the iPhone 18 Pro there’ll be what’s possibly the equal-heaviest iPhone ever in the shape of the iPhone 18 Pro Max and possibly Apple’s first foldable. It looks like the iPhone 18 Pro release date will be on the Friday of the following week, which means Friday, Sept. 18. If, as 9to5Mac suggests above, the keynote happens a week later, then the onsale date will slip to Friday, Sept. 25. But I dont’ see this happening. Whatever the exact date, the exact time is likely to be 7 a.m. I didn’t put a time zone, you’ll notice, because it’s staggered. So, 7 a.m. in Australia will be one of the first places to pick up the new iPhone, Los Angeles one of the last — it’s 7 a.m. local time, wherever you are. ForbesApple Releases AirPods Pro 3, AirPods Max 2 Firmware With iOS 27 Features: How To InstallBy David Phelan