Against the backdrop of flat retail sales growth in the first half of 2026, China has set a clear consumption target under its 15th Five-Year Plan, which aims to lift total retail sales of consumer goods to around 60 trillion renminbi, or around $8.8 trillion, by 2030, which translates to an annual growth rate of 3.7 percent in retail sales from 2026 onward.
Approved by the State Council last week, the plan marks the first time Beijing has introduced a national-level, five-year blueprint specifically dedicated to expanding consumption, underscoring its growing importance as a long-term economic priority.
However, the world’s second-largest economy remains in the midst of a structural reset. A prolonged real estate downturn, employment pressures and uncertainty surrounding rapid advances in artificial intelligence have contributed to a more cautious consumer mindset, with households prioritizing savings over spending.
According to official data released last week, despite strong export growth — China‘s exports jumped 27 percent in June to $412.4 billion, the fastest growth since October 2021 — domestic retail sales registered a lackluster increase of 1.4 percent year-over-year from January to May.
