As populations grow and economies develop, the world will need more roads, railroads and other mobility infrastructure, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions. The challenge is to provide that infrastructure while minimizing resource use and carbon emissions—a goal new research suggests is well within reach.
A new study published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology finds the world's mobility infrastructure is set to expand dramatically by 2060, especially in the Global South, driving demand for concrete, steel and asphalt and locking in significant carbon emissions.
A research team from BOKU University and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) shows that shaping future mobility demand, optimizing the types and amount of infrastructure built, and choosing production technologies can cut embodied emissions by up to 63% while still meeting infrastructure needs. The study combines BOKU's high-resolution global infrastructure mapping with IIASA's MESSAGEix integrated assessment framework to evaluate future material demand and emissions.
Today's global mobility infrastructure is dominated by roads and contains about 350 billion tons of materials, with large inequalities between affluent, low-population-density regions and densely populated, lower-income regions. Without changes in policy and planning, total material stocks of global mobility infrastructure could double by 2060. As countries work to ensure a decent minimum level of mobility access for their populations, global mobility networks could even triple in size. This growth would bring major annual material requirements and added pressure on land and ecosystems.
