RIYADH: Morocco’s economy is expected to grow 4.8 percent in 2026, supported mainly by an exceptional rebound in agricultural activity, before slowing to 3 percent in 2027 on the assumption of an average cereal harvest, according to the Haut-Commissariat au Plan’s July 2026 exploratory economic budget.
The outlook comes as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at the start of 2026 and disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the global economy, pushing up commodity prices and disrupting international supply chains.
Global economic activity is expected to slow to around 3 percent in 2026, from 3.5 percent in 2025, before recording a modest recovery to 3.4 percent in 2027. The slowdown in global trade is also expected to weigh on foreign demand directed toward Morocco, which is projected to decline from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, before improving to 2.9 percent in 2027.
“Domestic demand will continue to support economic growth, as a result of the recovery in final consumption and the strength of investment, despite external volatility,” the official report said.
That resilience is expected to be tested by weaker trade conditions. Foreign exchange is projected to come under pressure from lower external demand directed toward Morocco and higher commodity prices, which would widen the trade deficit in 2026.
