ESPN’s metrics-based Football Power Index was recently unveiled for the 2026 campaign. The model, with its usual percentage-based predictions, offered a game-by-game projection of the Illini’s upcoming campaign. Here are the numbers for each contest at present, along with our take for each projection. (For what it's worth, FPI now ranks Illinois as the No. 39 team in the country.)Illinois vs. UABIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 95.2 percent Verdict: agreeTo open the 2026 campaign, Illinois gets a tuneup against a lowly AAC club.Illinois vs. DukeSep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz during the fourth quarter against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 66.4 percent Verdict: agreeNo Darian Mensah for Duke, no problem for Illinois.Illinois vs. Southern IllinoisIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 94.2 percent Verdict: agreeSIU, an FCS squad, gave Purdue something of a challenge a season ago. Unfortunately for the Salukis, the Illini are not last year's Boilermakers.Illinois at Ohio StateOhio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) catches a pass in front of Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) during the first half of the Big Ten Conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 6, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 4.6 percent Verdict: agreeThe Illini knocked off top-ranked Ohio State in The Shoe back in 2007 (and the Buckeyes very well may be ranked No. 1 for this game). Can they do it again in 2026? There are two reasons the answer is a hard no: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. (But then again: 4.6 percent?)Illinois vs. PurdueIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 75.5 percent Verdict: agreeSpeaking of the bottom-feeding Boilermakers, who are on the heels of a winless Big Ten campaign, even playing at home isn't likely to give them a snowball's chance against Illinois. But, as always, don’t be surprised if the Illini make it unnecessarily interesting.Illinois at Michigan StateMichigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 62.0 percent Verdict: (mostly) agreeCan Pat Fitzgerald conjure his old Northwestern magic as the new coach at Michigan State? Maybe, but with the Spartans running so low on talent, it won’t be in Year 1. Illinois, which is being lowballed by ESPN’s FPI in this one, shouldn't have a problem in East Lansing.Illinois vs. OregonIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 15.0 percent Verdict: agreeThe Ducks will roll into Champaign for the first time since 1993 … and roll out with their second blowout win over the Illini in the past three seasons.Illinois at MarylandNov 1, 2025; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley stands on the field before the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 55.2 percent Verdict: agreeSince Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, it has finished below .500 every season except one (4-4 in its debut year). But Mike Locksley’s young talent is maturing, and the Terrapins could give the Illini a run for their money in College Park.Illinois vs. NebraskaIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 49.2 percent Verdict: disagreeSave for the brand name, the continuous (and not so cautious) optimism in Lincoln is confusing, to say the least. (Hey, maybe Illinois’ ever-pessimistic fan base should take notes.) It has been a decade since the Cornhuskers finished over .500 in Big Ten play.They did so-so work in the portal, but the Huskers obviously lost talented quarterback Dylan Raiola. Also, considering this game is in Champaign, the Illini should be the team to beat.Illinois at UCLADec 9, 2025; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Bob Chesney is introduced as UCLA Bruins football coach at press conference at Renee Luskin Conference Center Centennial Ballroom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 56.7 percent Verdict: agreeAt long last, Illinois' footballers are making the trek to Los Angeles, and fortunately for Bret Bielema and his club, it’s for a matchup against the lesser of the Big Ten's two SoCal programs. That said, UCLA won’t be a walkover. And not for nothing, the Illini had no luck in their first two West Coast trips (getting torched by Oregon in 2024 and falling to Washington last season).Illinois vs. IowaIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 43.1 percent Verdict: (mostly) agreeSome things never change. The Hawkeyes, yet again, should be stingy on defense but have questions to answer at quarterback. Iowa’s ground game may be a problem for an Illini unit tailored to slow down passing attacks. But the gap isn’t that large (if one exists at all), and this contest comes at home for Illinois. Should be a toss-up.Illinois at NorthwesternNov 15, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun gestures to his team against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectIllini win probability, per ESPN FPI: 59.1 percent Verdict: agreeNorthwestern has been surprisingly competitive since David Braun took over, and the Wildcats should be stout on defense in 2026. The past three matchups have all been decided by fewer than 10 points, and playing in Evanston could make this one even tighter for the Illini. They may have a slight edge – but nothing more.Illinois’ final record projection according to ESPN’s Football Power Index: 6.7-5.3Verdict: disagreeThe general – and entirely fair – expectation is that Illinois will take a step back in 2026. Between the loss of key personnel and coaching turnover, it’s a reset year in Champaign – though not a rebuild. The Illini should, at bare minimum, have enough to finish the regular season with a 7-5 overall record. And an 8-4 finish wouldn’t be a shock.Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow