MOSCOW, July 20. /TASS/. The Russian economy is experiencing an "investment pause" rather than a systemic crisis, and retains the foundation for a recovery with full-year GDP growth projected to reach up to 0.7%, Vladimir Yeremkin, a senior researcher at the Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy's Institute of Applied Economic Research (IAER), told TASS.
"We are currently in a phase of an investment pause and fading consumer momentum, which is far from a systemic crisis. The economy is paying the price for cooling down after overheating, but the base for recovery remains intact. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP is likely to show a slight plus, and full-year economic growth could reach up to 0.7%, barring any major risks," Yeremkin said.
His comments follow a report titled "Study 2. Inflation and Anti-Inflation Policy" published on Monday by Dmitry Belousov, head of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. Belousov argued that the Russian economy is facing a near-stagflationary situation.
According to Belousov, excessively tight monetary policy has triggered a decline in investment, dragging down overall economic momentum. As a result, the Russian economy contracted in the first quarter of this year amid stubborn inflation, and it remains uncertain whether it can break out of this cycle in the second quarter.
