Ukrainian attacks in and around the Sea of Azov have sharply reduced Russia's grain exports at the start of the new agricultural season, leaving millions of tons of grain stranded in southern storage facilities, analysts and industry officials said.
Russian authorities stopped accepting applications for vessels to transit the Kerch Strait on July 11 after more than 100 ships operating in the Sea of Azov came under drone attacks, effectively halting grain shipments from Russia's Azov ports.
Russia is now expected to export 1.5 million metric tons of wheat in July, down about 30% from 2.1 million tons in the same month last year and less than half the five-year July average of 3.1 million tons, agricultural consultancy SovEcon said Monday.
If realized, the figure would mark Russia's weakest July wheat exports since 2017 and effectively return shipments to levels last seen about a decade ago, SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov said in a post on Telegram.
"The main reason for the decline is navigation restrictions through the Kerch Strait," Sizov said.
