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Arizona's mid-July congressional primaries are crucial for the GOP's slim majority in the U.S. House.Donald Trump's endorsements are being tested in key races, including for former NFL kicker Jay Feely in District 1.In District 5, Trump-backed candidate Mark Lamb faces allegations of personal misconduct.A progressive newcomer is challenging established Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton in the 4th Congressional District.Arizona's congressional primary races may determine whether Republicans can maintain their slight edge in the U.S. House come November and test the power of President Donald Trump's endorsement.Three competitive contests will be in the spotlight on July 21 in this purple state, which narrowly chose former President Joe Biden in 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024.In District 1, Republican and former NFL player Jay Feely aims to capitalize on Trump's backing to replace David Schweikert, a retiring GOP congressman and Arizona gubernatorial candidate. Another Trump-endorsed choice, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, is hoping he can overcome allegations of sexting and sharing racist and homophobic texts to defeat Republican challenger Daniel Keenan in the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District.And a Democratic face-off in the 4th Congressional District pits progressive newcomer Kai Newkirk against a well-established centrist incumbent, Rep. Greg Stanton.Six of the state's nine U.S. House seats are held by Republicans. Overall, Republicans hold a slim majority in the House with 218 seats, including one independent who caucuses with them, while Democrats hold 212 seats. Four seats are currently vacant."Arizona can't be overlooked because in the big picture, with Republicans having such a slim advantage in the House, every seat matters," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told USA TODAY ahead of the July 21 primary.Can Trump-endorsed Feely kick his way to a primary win?In key swing District 1, former NFL Pro Bowl kicker Feely is seeking to capitalize on his name recognition and Trump's endorsement to defeat former state Rep. Joe Chaplik and businessman John Trobough.The three candidates are vying to replace retiring Republican congressman and current Arizona gubernatorial candidate Schweikert in this wealthy, metro-Phoenix-based congressional seat.The three candidates don't vary much on policy, as they support Trump's agenda on top issues like immigration, economic policy, and the war with Iran. But the race has become contentious over the use of artificial intelligence, dividing the district's loyal GOP base.Feely favors the technology, arguing that AI data centers can benefit local communities and emphasizing their importance to national security. Chaplik is more skeptical, saying he would oppose any data centers in the district that his constituents didn't want. Trobough, a former cybersecurity company CEO, has emphasized that his experience will better position Arizona on AI and other tech issues.But getting the support from Trump could be what puts Feely over the top, said Thom Reilly, a professor and codirector of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University. Feely initially ran for Congress for the 5th District, but switched districts after Trump's endorsement made Lamb the clear front-runner."Given how Trump endorsements have basically worked everywhere else, I can't see why it wouldn't work this time here," Reilly said about Feely's chances of winning the open seat in District 1.Kondik agrees. "It would come as a surprise if Feely lost," he said.But the district could be a toss-up in November. Democratic primary challengers include former state legislator Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods, a former television news anchor endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).The two squared off in the 2024 primary, with Shah beating Galán-Woods by about 1,700 votes. Shah eventually lost to Schweikert, but could be a contender again this year."Overall, this district is a very viable Democratic target," Kondik said. "Anything can happen."5th District primary tests the strength of Trump's endorsementAmong the key questions in Arizona's congressional primaries is whether Trump-backed former Pinal County Sheriff Lamb can overcome allegations of making threats, sexting, and sharing racist and homophobic texts to defeat Republican challenger Keenan in conservative-leaning District 5.The primary winner will replace GOP Rep. Andy Biggs, who is vacating the seat to run for Arizona governor.Lamb did little to push back as a monthslong investigation by The Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, surfaced claims of sexting, threats, intimidation, nude photo-sharing, sending racist messages and his recent purchase of a multimillion-dollar ranch property in Tennessee.The allegations raised eyebrows in the district that has been represented by a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints for decades. It even led Lamb's underdog opponent, construction business owner Keenan, to spend his personal wealth on ads putting the allegations squarely before voters. Keenan fashioned himself as a scandal-free alternative to Lamb and emphasized he, too, was in lockstep with Trump.A charismatic personality and a regular speaker at Trump's rallies for years, Lamb curated an image as "America's Sheriff" by frequently appearing on cable news and reality television shows, gaining a large online following in the process."Keenan could pull it off, you never know," Reilly said. "But Lamb, with that Trump stamp of approval, that might just be enough for him to prevail in the primary."Progressive candidate seeks to pull off a Mamdani-esque upsetAnother race worth watching is whether four-term Democratic incumbent Stanton could be upset by community organizer Newkirk, a political newcomer and self-proclaimed democratic socialist, in the 4th Congressional District.Despite garnering national attention among progressives who thought Newkirk might have a chance of winning amid a national anti-establishment surge that occurred with democratic socialist candidates in New York and Colorado, he might be a flash in the pan.Newkirk has struggled to win support from within the district, even from the left-wing activist groups who initially embraced his vision.A series of lost endorsements has also dimmed Newkirk's once-promising campaign as he wanted his race to be a referendum on Israel, resistance to Trump, and other issues that have fueled left-wing candidates to upset wins."A late entry into the race, significantly less fundraising than Stanton, and no labor backing has put Newkirk at a strategic disadvantage, and put the District in the position of risking a fascist ghoul taking the seat in the fall," the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America wrote in their 2026 candidate guide."After long and careful consideration as a committee, we are offering no recommendation in this race," the DSA concluded.Also, Stanton is a staunch moderate, serving in a leadership role for the party's centrist New Democrats bloc in the U.S. House. A former Phoenix mayor, Stanton has been reelected to Congress every two years since 2018.
