“Choice usually isn’t choice, only what you’re left with.”
— “Be Mine,” Richard FordSunday could make you forget.With Francisco Lindor powering the middle of the lineup and Nolan McLean overpowering the other one, the New York Mets on Sunday provided a glimpse of what should have been in 2026.Instead, the 6-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies to clinch a series win is an outlier performance in a moribund season. In their 100th game, the Mets won for just the 42nd time. They will be sellers at the trade deadline in two weeks, their focus shifting to 2027.How can they rebound then?Since 1995, 164 teams have completed the first half of a season with a winning percentage of .430 or worse. (This year’s Mets were at .412.) Eighteen of them have made the postseason the next year, with the 2024 Kansas City Royals the most recent and most remarkable example. Kansas City finished the first half of the 2023 season at 26-65 — 11 games worse even than this year’s Mets — and turned it around to reach the Division Series in 2024.What did those 18 teams have in common? What can the Mets learn from them about what it takes to rebound from one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history? And how important is the work right now at the trade deadline?Interim manager Andy Green summed it up Sunday: "Our good players have to turn great, our great players have to be stars, and then the guys who have just shown up have to contribute."Step 1: A superstar emerges via a breakout or returns via a bounce backIf you're going to forge a huge turnaround, you're going to need at least one player to show massive improvement — someone to be roughly four or five wins better than the year before.This can come from within via a sparkling rookie debut, such as Evan Longoria with the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays or Kris Bryant with the 2015 Chicago Cubs. It can come from a player making the leap from a pretty good regular to a legitimate superstar, such as Sammy Sosa with the 1998 Cubs or Lance Berkman with the 2001 Houston Astros. It can come from a young player making a large leap from a superstar to an even bigger one, such as Bobby Witt Jr. with the 2024 Royals.It can come from within via a veteran bounce back, as well. The 2015 Texas Rangers saw Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo return to form after difficult seasons the year before. The 2002 Cubs did not get a vintage Moisés Alou season; the 2003 team did.And it can come from outside the organization. The 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks signed Randy Johnson to arguably the greatest free-agent contract ever for a pitcher — and traded Karim García for Luis Gonzalez, just as the latter broke through as an MVP candidate. The 2015 Cubs added Jon Lester to the rotation. The 2008 Rays won the challenge trade of Delmon Young for Matt Garza pretty handily.The good news for the Mets is there are several candidates to be superstars in 2027. Lindor has been one for most of his career; at 32, he's not necessarily in irreversible decline. Bo Bichette is capable of a better, more consistent season. And though it's unlikely that McLean or A.J. Ewing or Carson Benge will put up six wins above replacement next season, it's not impossible.Step 2: Multiple players improve from being playable to being goodThough the superstar jump typically draws the headlines, a rebound season is fueled by a whole bunch of players being one or two wins better than they were the year before.
