Lionel Messi is expected to play the final World Cup match of his career on Sunday, and prediction markets suggest he will lose it, pricing Spain at 59% to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium.
The math has been against Argentina before.
La Albiceleste trailed Egypt 2-0 in the last 16 and England 1-0 late in the semifinal, with Messi inspiring comeback wins both times. Four years ago in Qatar, his side lost its opener to Saudi Arabia before lifting the trophy anyway.
Polymarket traders still give the defending champions just 41% to retain the trophy, with more than $4.2 billion already traded. Kalshi shows a near-identical 58% for Spain in their market, with over $1.2 billion in volume.
Why Spain Is The Better Team
