The World Cup is driving record-breaking activity on prediction markets, with popular platforms Kalshi and Polymarket reporting their highest trading volumes to date. Just days ahead of Sunday’s final, the Argentina–Spain contract has become the single largest market in the platforms’ history, while overall World Cup trading has outpaced other major sports-related contracts.
According to data shared by Kalshi, the contract for the outcome of the Argentina–Spain final, which went live Wednesday following Argentina’s win over England, has already surpassed $1.27 billion in trading volume. As of mid-day Friday, bets on Kalshi showed the Spanish team with 61% odds to prevail over Lionel Messi’s squad.
As of Tuesday morning, total trading across World Cup contracts had exceeded $25 billion—dwarfing volumes seen in other major sports markets, including roughly $2 billion for the NBA finals and $1 billion for the Super Bowl.
Polymarket has seen a similar surge in activity, with the Argentina–Spain contract reaching nearly $3 million in trading volume as of Friday. The platform told Fortune that more than 64,000 users had engaged with the match page three days before the final, signaling deep liquidity. Its World Cup Winner market has generated $4 billion in cumulative trading volume since launching in July 2025, making it the largest single market in Polymarket’s history and surpassing the 2024 U.S. presidential election. In June alone, the platform recorded nearly $11 billion in global monthly notional volume, largely driven by World Cup trading.
